Trump's rocket announcement brings Ukraine relief, but sanctions are missing
Trump's rocket announcement brings Ukraine relief, but sanctions are missing
Donald Trumps statements on Ukraine were far from the most important announcement that the US President could have made. However, there are some positive news for Kyiv. Trump has allowed the other NATO member states to buy American weapons-a wide range, it seems. This includes the urgently needed Patriot-Abfangrakets . Trump even indicated that 17 copies are still available in a NATO country.
urgent need for weapons
Regardless of the exact reality of the weapon deal, which NATO ultimately provides, this corresponds exactly to what Trump proposed on the weekend and what Ukraine urgently needs. The nightly attacks with Russian ballistic rockets can only be stopped by US patriot rockets, and only the white house can approve their delivery. In the past, Ukraine was under -supplied with these and other highly developed American weapons, which may not have been mentioned by name, and which are possibly part of the deal. This represents an urgently needed, short -term discharge.
Missing sanctions against Russia
But the bitter pill for Ukraine is what has not been announced: immediate secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian energy that Moscow could significantly empty. The proposal for sanctions, which was introduced in the US Senate could be up to 500 % on the entire trade with that that Buy Russian hydrocarbons and be devastating.
global effects of the sanctions
These sanctions would also affect China and India - the main competitor and the important allies of the United States - at a time when oil prices are low, but the trade conflict is high. The damage to the energy markets would be noticeable, and the USA would also be affected by probably rising oil prices. However, this happens with a significant delay, together with the somewhat toothless threat of sanctions against Russia itself (since there is almost no trade that could be punished).
Putin's decision and possible changes
Fifty days give Vladimir Putin time until September to move Trump to change of opinion or to change the course of the conflict in such a way that Putin is ready to strive for a standstill. This creates a time window in which New Delhi and Beijing could try to decouple themselves from the Russian energy supply-which is unlikely in view of their dependency and the complexity of this project-or exert pressure on Moscow to end the war. This is also a difficult requirement for Beijing, which recently indicated that they cannot allow Moscow to lose the conflict without the United States attracting all their attention to their rivalry with China.
Trump's approach to conflict resolution
The deadline also shows that Trump is not yet willing to give up the most difficult imagination of his Ukraine policy: that the Kremlin actually wants peace and has not yet been sufficiently convinced. Trump has again set a deadline to push Russia into a deal. We have already been at this point, and Putin has already ignored the ticking watch.
changes in Trump's rhetoric
Nevertheless, it is important to pick up Trump's changed tone - the mood, which may be a more permanent indication of the politics of the White House than the details provided. A remarkable moment was when Trump avoided Putin a murderer and painted a picture of the White House, in which the First Lady often reminds him of how violently Kiev is hit by Russian drones and rockets.
Review of Trump's Ukraine policy
The US President moved through all Putin's phases-from spring expectations for possible peace, about a short summer of diplomacy in Gulf and Istanbul, to a autumn with deteriorated relationships and finally the same winter of dissatisfaction, which was the standard position of President Joe Biden. After six months in which Russian diplomacy - with its synthetic and performative nature, combined with cynical, maximum demands - had their muscles played, Trump did not give up to make the Kremlin voluntarily ending its existential election war.
final thoughts
Trump also averse from some harder options that were available. No new American money will flow to Ukraine, and we have heard nothing public about new skills that are delivered.
Trump's Ukraine policy has changed in her mood, but retains decisive elements of the past: the desire that someone else bears the costs; Deadlines for measures instead of direct consequences for inactivity; And an astonishing belief that the Kremlin wants peace.
Kiev will initially be relieved, but could soon experience a well -known feeling of disappointment.
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