Trump's missile announcement brings relief to Ukraine, but sanctions are missing

Trump's missile announcement brings relief to Ukraine, but sanctions are missing

Donald Trump's Statements on Ukraine on Monday were far from the most significant announcement the US president could have made. However, there is some positive news for Kyiv. Trump has allowed other NATO member states to buy American weapons – a wide range, it seems. This includes those that are urgently needed Patriot interceptor missiles and the associated batteries. Trump even suggested that 17 copies were still available in a NATO country.

Urgent need for weapons

Regardless of the exact reality of the arms deal that NATO ultimately delivers, this is exactly what Trump proposed over the weekend and what Ukraine desperately needs. The nightly Russian ballistic missile attacks can only be stopped by US Patriot missiles, and only the White House can authorize their delivery. Ukraine has historically been undersupplied with these and other sophisticated American weapons that may not have been named and that may be part of the deal. This provides much-needed, short-term relief.

Lack of sanctions against Russia

But the bitter pill for Ukraine is what was not announced: immediate secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian energy that could significantly empty Moscow's coffers. The proposal for sanctions which was introduced in the US Senate, could amount to up to 500% of all trade with those buying Russian hydrocarbons and would be devastating.

Global impact of sanctions

These sanctions would also affect China and India - the US's main rival and key ally - at a time when oil prices are low but trade tensions are high. The damage to the energy markets would be noticeable, and the USA would also be affected by likely rising oil prices. However, this is happening with considerable delay, along with the somewhat toothless threat of sanctions against Russia itself (since there is almost no trade to punish).

Putin's decision and possible changes

Fifty days give Vladimir Putin until September to persuade Trump to change his mind or for the Russian president's alleged summer offensive to change the course of the conflict so that Putin is willing to seek a stalemate. This creates a window in which New Delhi and Beijing could seek to decouple from Russian energy supplies - unlikely given their dependence and the complexity of this endeavor - or put pressure on Moscow to end the war. This is also a difficult ask of Beijing, which has recently indicated that it cannot allow Moscow to lose the conflict without the United States focusing all of its attention on its rivalry with China.

Trump's approach to conflict resolution

The deadline also shows that Trump is not yet ready to give up the most elusive idea of ​​his Ukraine policy: that the Kremlin actually wants peace and has not yet been sufficiently convinced. Trump has again set a deadline to pressure Russia into a deal. We've been to this point before, and Putin has already ignored the ticking clock.

Changes in Trump's rhetoric

Still, it's important to pick up on Trump's changing tone - the mood that is perhaps a more enduring indication of White House policy than the details provided. One notable moment came when Trump avoided calling Putin a murderer and painted a picture of the White House in which the first lady often reminds him of how badly Kiev is being hit by Russian drones and missiles.

Review of Trump's Ukraine policy

The US president has moved through all phases of Putin's politics - from spring anticipation of possible peace, to a brief summer of diplomacy in the Gulf and Istanbul, to an autumn of deteriorating relations and finally the same winter of discontent that has been President Joe Biden's default position. After six months of Russian diplomacy – with its synthetic and performative nature combined with cynical, maximalist demands – flexing its muscles, Trump has not given up on getting the Kremlin to voluntarily end its existential electoral war.

Final thoughts

Trump has also balked at some of the tougher options available to him. No new American money will flow to Ukraine, and we have heard nothing public about new capabilities being delivered.

Trump's Ukraine policy has changed in tone but retains crucial elements of the past: the desire for someone else to bear the costs; Deadlines for action rather than immediate consequences for inaction; and a startling belief that the Kremlin wants peace.

Kyiv will initially be relieved, but could soon experience a familiar feeling of disappointment.