Trump's Ukraine talks: A crucial test for the Kremlin
Trump's Ukraine talks: A crucial test for the Kremlin
When it comes to the to end the statements and President Donald Trump's social media posts lost in importance. The declining chances of an early ceasefire and a peace treaty now depend on whether he finally finds the courage to support his rhetorical attacks on President Vladimir Putin through concrete actions. The Kremlin relies that he will not do so.
Trump's frustration and Putin's reaction
The Moscow government rejected Trump's frustration about the most intense Russian drone attacks on Ukraine as a symptom of an "emotional overload". Experience has shown that Putin can ignore the provocations of Trump, who described Putin as "crazy" on Monday, while at the same time finding somewhat less charming words for Ukraine and President Wolodymyr Selenskyj. Nevertheless, the increasing Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians seem to be a targeted challenge for Trump, just a week after the exhilarated that did not make progress towards peace, despite the glosses in the White House.
Trump's possible options
Trump has two ways he can take, provided he is ready to leave his embarrassing position, in which he is constantly pulled by Putin. He could impose new sanctions against Russia, which he previously described as a hindrance to diplomacy. On Sunday, Trump said reporters in New Jersey that this was "absolutely" a consideration. He could also save lives in Ukraine by, like his predecessor Joe Biden, he asks the congress to approve new weapons and ammunition deliveries to the country. However, this would mean a massive turn that would be politically embarrassed, since Trump's opposition to billion dollar investments in Ukraine is a cornerstone of his second presidency. In addition, he would have to accept that his conviction of being able to manage Putin was faulty.
The fear of an American withdrawal
However, there is another option - one that Ukraine and its European allies are afraid of. Trump could raise his hands and argue that none of the pages is interested in peace, and it was time that the United States is withdrawing. Russia would then continue his war of wear and attacks on civilians. Such land grabbing would be considered legitimate and creating a catastrophic precedent for European security and pulling off the United States. This is not an empty academic thought; An isolationist strand within the Maga movement has recently led to the fact that information from Foreign Minister Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance that the United States could withdraw, more than just a simple negotiation tactic.the need for a determined action
There is a good reason why Trump could change his opinion: his credibility is at stake after his daring forecasts, he could End , as a fantasy were exposed. One possibility would be that Trump will introduce secondary sanctions against Russia, which he occasionally considered. These would target financial institutions and companies that continue to do business with Moscow. The Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal have brought in a new law that provides for strict sanctions against countries that continue to do business with Russia. This could harm US opponents such as China, but would also burden Trump's relationships with allies such as India who make large purchases of Russian oil.
In addition, Trump could strengthen Ukraine's air defense by donating or selling more patriot rockets to Kiev to ward off the cruise rockets that accompany the murderous night drone attack. The dangers of an escalation of the war into a more direct confrontation between Russia and the West should not be underestimated. This consideration was also of great importance for bidies, and the slow review of the red lines of Russia by the ex-president was a constant frustration for his critics.
The observations of the allies
The European allies observe exactly whether Trump puts his announcements into practice. During a visit to Vietnam, French President Emmanuel Macron said that after a conversation with Trump, he got the impression that the US President now understood that Vladimir Putin, while offering peace by phone. The German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also commented sharply and said that there are now no restrictions on the reach of European weapons that could fire Ukraine - which means that they could now shoot deep into the Russian area.
The allies seem to feel a moment when Trump's opinion, in the case of months of trying to move Putin to an immediate ceasefire, could be influenced. But as so often, nobody can be sure in which direction they will choose. A European diplomat said it was still difficult to say whether Putin's convictions really signal a new approach by the President, but found that Europe was obviously interested in further sanctions.
The perception of the Kremlin about Trump
However,There are two problems with the view that Trump has finally recognized the truth about the Russian guide. First, he was never particularly inclined to criticize Putin. Secondly, the ruthlessness of the Russian leader in the war is after three years of an unprovoked and illegal assault that cost tens of thousands of civilians and international war crimes could lead to the indictment , nothing new.
That is why it is risky to take Trump's rhetoric for bare coin at the weekend. His comments served political purpose to distract questions from journalists about his views on the latest atrocities in Ukraine. And on the occasion of the Memorial Day, he received positive headlines for his hard course against Putin. But experience shows that the president often passes on other topics as soon as the moment is over.
"Words are cheap and we are waiting for acts," said the former Senior National Intelligence Official Beth Sanner to CNN on Monday. "You have to put pressure on the party that represents the problem." Sanner added: "Putin does not believe that Trump will implement his threats."
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