Russia and Ukraine: Direct talks for the first time in 3 years

Russia and Ukraine: Direct talks for the first time in 3 years

In Istanbul, after five days of uncertainty over Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposal for direct talks with Ukraine, the day on which the talks were supposed to begin initially brought only more confusion. Journalists gathered for hours on the banks of the Bosphorus while the Russian Consulate was turbulent. Finally, the Ukrainian president decided that this could potentially be a new turning point in the complicated conflict.

Chaotic scenes in Istanbul

The chaotic scenes, which took place in Istanbul on Thursday, pointed to a rocky road ahead. When international media arrived at Dolmabahçe Palace in the morning, Ukraine had not yet confirmed whether it would take part, nor was there any information about the composition of its delegation. A Turkish Foreign Ministry source told CNN that “no meeting has been scheduled yet.”

Waiting for Putin

While the Kremlin confirmed to CNN that Putin definitely would not appear, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the capital Ankara.

“Waiting is better than knowing the outcome,” joked Stanislav Ivashchenko, a Russian Defense Ministry correspondent who was waiting among the coffee-happy journalists. “Everyone is tired of this war,” he told CNN, “but we will defend our position.”

Putin's proposal for new negotiations

Russia's tireless defense of its position is a key reason why the Russian president unexpectedly proposed these talks five days ago. Faced with an ultimatum from Kiev and its allies to sign a 30-day ceasefire or face further major sanctions, Putin chose a third path.

“We propose to the Kiev authorities to resume negotiations that they broke off in 2022,” he said in a news conference on Sunday morning. To underscore that point, he chose the same city where some of the first peace talks took place - Istanbul - and, as he revealed on Wednesday evening, the same key negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, a former culture minister and chairman of Russia's Military Historical Society.

A constructive approach?

“The delegation is committed to a constructive approach,” Medinski said Thursday in a brief appearance at the Russian consulate in which he did not answer questions. The media crowd was so intense that consular officials could be heard threatening to cancel the press release if journalists did not calm down.

Medinski said the direct talks were intended to “establish long-term peace and address the causes of the conflict.” The use of the term “causes,” which for Russia ranged from Ukraine’s NATO ambitions to its existence as a sovereign state, showed how far away an agreement could still be.

Trump in the background

To further complicate the situation, Russia and Ukraine are now balancing their own interests with their relationship with Donald Trump. The US president hinted again on Thursday that he might attend the talks, saying: "If something happens, I would consider going on Friday." White House envoys Keith Kellogg and Steve Witkoff are already scheduled to be in Istanbul on Friday.

Zelensky made no attempt to hide that Trump played a crucial role in his ultimate decision to engage with Russia. After his late afternoon meeting with Erdoğan, he said that not only would he send a delegation to Istanbul, but that it would be led by a higher-ranking official than the Russian side - Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, "in respect for President Trump."

Putin's hopes for a new start

Russia is also closely watching Trump's next move and remains hopeful for a promised new beginning in relations. Trump may have raised those hopes on Thursday when he told reporters upon his arrival in Abu Dhabi: "Nothing will happen until Putin and I get together."

Former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, who left his post in Geneva in 2022, believes that a meeting with Trump would be a big win for Putin, while he has little interest in meeting Zelensky.

“Two major powers should come together and discuss how subordinate countries should live under their roof,” he told CNN in an interview from Switzerland. "That's how he sees the world. That's why Zelensky doesn't fit in."