Poland's presidential election could end Tusk s populism
Poland's presidential election could end Tusk s populism
Since the re -enactment of the power from the hands of his populist rivals a year and a half ago, Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk faces a stubborn obstacle: the president of the country.
The upcoming presidential elections
This situation could change after the upcoming decisive presidential election, which begins on Sunday with a first round of election.
The favorites in the race
Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and closely linked to Tusk's social-liberal government party, currently leads in the surveys to the successor of Andrzej Duda, who has completed two terms and not again. His main opponent is Karol Nawrocki, an ally of US President Donald Trump and like Duda the candidate of the right-wing populist law and Justice (PIS) party, which vehemently rejects Tusks Agenda. Nawrocki has supported Trump loudly and a meeting in white house held.
The political implications for Tusk and Europe
The political missions for Tusk and Europe are enormous: the presidential palace was the last political bulwark of the PIS, which in the past eight years an offensive against the independence of the Polish judicial system that led the media and cultural institutions before Tusk set off the government at the end of 2023. TuSk has once again linked Warsaw to Brussels, where others see him as a model to free a country of populism, while many centric leaders give in to the pressure from the right.
President Duda as a political obstacle
With the free use of the Presidential Vetos, DUDA blocked by tusk to change Polish society, including the desired judicial reforms. He has also delayed progress in laws to hate crime and access to contraception, be it through veto or by initiating legal blockages.
The role of the President in Poland
The President of Poland is the head of state of the country and traditionally plays a rather ceremonial role than the Prime Minister who leads the government. But veto law enables a president to act as a counterpoint to the government. Duda openly interfered in political affairs and publicly argued with Tusk about various points on his agenda.
The possible consequences of a choice of Nawrocki
If Nawrocki triumphs in the elections - which will take place again in two weeks, if no candidate receives 50% of the votes - it is expected that this obstacle will remain until the next parliamentary election 2027 if Tusk is to present the results of his government agenda to the voters. "A victory of Nawrocki would significantly reduce the political capital of the Prime Minister," said Marta Prochwicz Jazowska from the European Council on Foreign Relations. "It would limit Tusk's scope for maneuver and burden his fragile government coalition, since the members would probably not agree on how to react to an opposition president."
Trzaskowski as a possible solution
A presidency of Trzaskowski would immediately free Tusk from these restrictions. The social-liberal mayor of Warsaw is a pro-European voice in Polish politics and narrowly lost the previous presidential election against Duda.
The challenges for Tusk
Despite the support of his political block, Tusk will continue to need the approval of his broad government coalition in order to implement controversial initiatives. He has promised to loosen the strict abortion restrictions and enable civil partnerships for same -sex couples, but both promises encounter resistance from legislators who support his government.
outlook for the upcoming election
At the election on Sunday, it is expected that the field of candidates to narrow on Nawrocki and Trzaskowski before a runoff election will be set in two weeks. But the performance of Sławomir Mentzen, the co-founder of the right-wing extremist Confederation Party, which is strongly anti-Brussels, anti-immigration and critical of the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj, is also given a lot of attention.
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