Bashar al-Assad leaves Syria-influence the Putin in Ukraine?

The world now knows the colors of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad: the Russian tricolore. Assad's escape to Moscow, after his regime has fallen rapidly, means more than just the loss of a client state for the Kremlin. The case of the Assad House is a massive setback for the ambitions of Russia President Vladimir Putin to act in the role of a powers in the Middle East - and raises new questions about the fragility of his own regime.

Putin's opponent celebrate the setback

Putin's adversary are already cheering. "Minus a dictator and ally of Putin," wrote the prominent Russian opposition activist Ilya Yashin on X and posted a picture of an Assad banner in flames. "Assad revealed Putin to extend his war in Ukraine," commented former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. "His resources are scarce and it is not as strong as he dates."

historical parallels to previous exile

For observers of Russia's war against Ukraine, Assad's departure accuses Remarkable historical parallels. Assad is now lined up in the ranks of former Ukrainian counterparts in exile: Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich fled to Russia in 2014, after weeks of street protests ended in a bloody defeat. While Syrian now roamed by Assad's presidential palace in Damascus, the Ukrainians were also able to visit the site of Mezhyhirya, the magnificent estate that once belonged.

consequences for the geopolitical location

mezhyhirya was redesigned as a museum of corruption. Yanukovych has not returned to Ukraine since his removal, although Russia now effectively controls more than 20% of the Ukrainian territory after its full invasion of the country in 2022. In contrast to Assad, whose troops of the fight for Damascus tasks, Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj held up when Russian troops approached Kiev. The Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who was also supported by the USA, fluctuated, which finally led to Afghanistan fell to Taliban in 2021.

The solemn meeting in Paris

Assad's escape from Syria was more than just a symbolic setback for Putin that took place at the moment when Selenskyj in France to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and the future US President Donald Trump before the cathedral of emergency lady. Selenskyj received standing ovations there.

Putin's strategic challenges

Ukraine is preparing for the consequences of Trump's possible election victory, while there is concern that the upcoming administration could withdraw support for Kiev. The collapse of Assad's regime could weaken Putin's negotiation position regarding a war end in Ukraine, especially if Putin's recent military threats are perceived as hollow.

a military loss for Russia

When rebel forces approached Damascus, Trump recognized the limited options of the Kremlin in a social media contribution: "Russia, which is so busy through the situation in Ukraine and has also lost over 600,000 soldiers there, it does not seem to be able to stop this true advance through Syria, a country that has been protecting for years."

The geopolitical consequences of the intervention

The collapse of the Assad regime is a real military loss for Putin. Videos document the throwing of a monument to Assad in Tartus, on the Mediterranean coast of Syria, where Moscow has had a naval base since the Cold War. Russia has also relied on its air force base in Hmeimim in the province of Latakia to promote power projections in the Middle East.

Putin's turn in geopolitical perception

When Putin intervened almost a decade ago directly in Syria and sent his Air Force and Russian mercenaries to support Assad's inferior powers, this escalation paid off: he won time for Assad, brought more territory under control and was an indispensable player in regional and global politics. If Putin was avoided by the other heads of state at the G20 summit after the annexation of the Crimea, he was the man with whom one wanted to speak.

The empty promises and Putin's future

Putin's promises of support for Assad now seem to be empty. However, it could be too early to write down Putin as a negotiating partner and potential opponents, despite the fall of his client.

Putin's negotiating position in the Ukraine conflict

Tatiana Stanovaya, a close observer of Putin, noted in a post on X that Assad's defeat could harden Putin's negotiating position on Ukraine. "Putin could provide additional conditions and will not willingly get involved in negotiations. He will insist that the West and Ukraine must now change their course," she said, referring to Trump's requests for Putin to end the war in Ukraine. "Note that Assad's collapse also shakes Putin, which makes him less inclined to show flexibility towards Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has partially cost him Syria, which strengthens its unwillingness to compromise."

Putin has long seen himself in an enemy conflict with the West, and he faces an arrest warrant of the International Criminal Court due to alleged war crimes in Ukraine. The fall of Assad could only harden its position.