Bashar al-Assad is leaving Syria – will this affect Putin in Ukraine?

The world now knows the colors of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's parachute: the Russian tricolor. Assad's flight to Moscow after his regime was rapidly overthrown represents more than just the loss of a client state for the Kremlin. The fall of the House of Assad represents a massive setback to Russian President Vladimir Putin's ambitions to act as a power representative in the Middle East - and raises new questions about the fragility of his own regime.

Putin's opponents celebrate the setback

Putin's opponents are already celebrating. “Minus a dictator and ally of Putin,” wrote prominent Russian opposition activist Ilya Yashin on X, posting a picture of an Assad banner in flames. “Putin betrayed Assad to prolong his war in Ukraine,” commented former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. “His resources are scarce and he is not as strong as he pretends.”

Historical parallels to previous exiles

For observers of Russia's war against Ukraine, Assad's departure raises striking historical parallels. Assad now joins the ranks of former Ukrainian counterparts in exile: Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych fled to Russia in 2014 after weeks of street protests ended in a bloody defeat. While Syrians now roam Assad's abandoned presidential palace in Damascus, Ukrainians have also been able to visit the grounds of Mezhyhirya, the lavish estate that once belonged to Yanukovych.

Consequences for the geopolitical situation

Mezhyhirya was redesigned as a museum of corruption. Since his ouster, Yanukovych has not returned to Ukraine, although Russia now effectively controls more than 20% of Ukrainian territory following its full invasion of the country in 2022. Unlike Assad, whose troops gave up the fight for Damascus, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held firm as Russian troops approached Kiev. However, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who was also supported by the US, wavered, which ultimately led to Afghanistan falling to the Taliban in 2021.

The celebratory meeting in Paris

Assad's escape from Syria was more than just a symbolic setback for Putin, coming as Zelensky was in France to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and future U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral. Zelensky received a standing ovation there.

Putin's strategic challenges

Ukraine is bracing for the fallout from Trump's possible election victory amid concerns that the incoming administration could withdraw support for Kiev. The collapse of Assad's regime could weaken Putin's negotiating position toward an end to the war in Ukraine, especially if Putin's recent military threats are perceived as hollow.

A military loss for Russia

As rebel forces approached Damascus, Trump acknowledged the Kremlin's limited options in a social media post: "Russia, so preoccupied by the situation in Ukraine and also losing over 600,000 troops there, appears unable to stop this real advance through Syria, a country they have been protecting for years."

The geopolitical consequences of the intervention

The collapse of the Assad regime represents a real military loss for Putin. Videos document the toppling of a monument to Assad in Tartus, on Syria's Mediterranean coast, where Moscow has maintained a naval base since the Cold War. Russia has also relied on its air base in Hmeimim in Latakia province to promote power projection in the Middle East.

Putin's turn in geopolitical perception

When Putin directly intervened in Syria almost a decade ago, sending his air force and Russian mercenaries to support Assad's inferior forces, that escalation paid off: He bought time for Assad, brought more territory under control and emerged as an indispensable player in regional and global politics. While Putin was shunned by other heads of state at the G20 summit in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea, a year later he was the man people wanted to talk to.

The empty promises and Putin's future

Putin's promises of support for Assad at the time now appear empty. However, it may be too early to write off Putin as a negotiating partner and potential adversary, despite his client's downfall.

Putin's negotiating position in the Ukraine conflict

Tatiana Stanovaya, a close observer of Putin, noted in a post on X that Assad's defeat could harden Putin's negotiating position on Ukraine. "Putin may impose additional conditions and will not readily engage in negotiations. He will insist that now the West and Ukraine must change course," she said, referring to Trump's calls for Putin to end the war in Ukraine. "Note that Assad's collapse has also shaken Putin, making him less inclined to show flexibility towards Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has cost him part of Syria, reinforcing his unwillingness to compromise."

Putin has long faced a hostile conflict with the West, and he faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. The fall of Assad could only further harden his position.