Syria: Fall of Assad - New terror threat or hope for peace?

Syria: Fall of Assad - New terror threat or hope for peace?

Syria is teetering on the brink following the alleged overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime. While some hold out hope for a new beginning, Syria expert Thomas Schmidinger warns against a too hasty return for refugees. The situation in the country is extremely confusing and the conflict in the north has even intensified. Schmidinger emphasizes that the war is being fueled by various interests and actors, such as the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which in videos already wants to march offensively on Jerusalem. The conflict could only be overcome with a federal system and compromise solutions, but this represents an enormous challenge in the current fragmentation of the country, reported krone.at.

Unrest and threats from IS

The fourth alarm bell rings the former IS fighter and Middle East expert Peter Neumann. He recognizes the “deceptive calm” within the terrorist organization Islamic State, which appears militarily weakened but still has the possibility of returning to the chaos of the country. ISIS has reportedly recently captured strategic positions in the deserts of Homs and Deir Ezor. Schmidinger adds that Kurdish forces are under immense pressure to fight both ISIS and Turkish-backed militias. A critical scenario could arise if the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) attempted to overrun Kurdish areas, which could result in the release of IS fighters from prisons, as was the case in 2022 20min.ch.

Geopolitical tensions continue to rise as the EU faces the challenge of developing an active Syria policy to prevent future humanitarian disasters and refugee waves. Without immediate action, the region could descend into chaos and produce an even darker fate for Syria and surrounding countries. If Kurdish forces protect the areas effectively, they could contain the IS offensive in the short to medium term, but the risk remains high.