Unpredictable US policy on Ukraine causes confusion in Kiev

Unpredictable US policy on Ukraine causes confusion in Kiev

Kyiv, Ukraine – A seismic shift in events over the past two weeks is difficult to comprehend. Ukraine and its allies fervently hope that the measures taken against them are merely an attention grabber. US President Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine is quoted as saying that this step was only there to wake up Ukraine. The White House has only military aid and Message exchange put on hold to settle an alleged debt in the form of about half of the mineral wealth of the country and demanding a public apology from the president - a negotiating tactic, it is believed. These may just be loud words before a hard deal.

A new approach from the US administration

But a deeper change is evident, one that Europe is slow to accept and struggles to adapt to. The Trump administration sees itself not as an ally of Ukraine and its European supporters, but as an intermediary between them and Moscow, hoping to rehabilitate Russia on the global political stage. Trump has announced that he is “seriously considering further sanctions against Moscow.” However, so far he has not taken any action. So far, Russia has only tasted the delicacies while the punishment has been absent.

High expectations for the upcoming meeting in Riyadh

The pressure exerted so far ahead of a possible deal is similar to that of a construction contractor on its subcontractors - here America against Ukraine and Europe - by pressing the terms so that they create a more attractive proposition for Russia. Hopes are high that a meeting in Riyadh on Tuesday between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and President Volodymyr Zelensky's team will Relations between Kyiv and Washington will improve.

The challenge of peace negotiations

Nevertheless, almost too much depends on this meeting. Personal enmities must be put aside. A deal on rare earths and other minerals — which, like the last draft seen by CNN, is essentially toothless but nonetheless represents a bold sign of American ambition for Ukraine's natural riches — must be signed. Above all, the White House must clarify what kind of peace it has in mind.

The challenges for European security and Ukrainian sovereignty

This question arises in full: Trump demands that Zelenskyj “commit to peace.” Does Trump mean vague ideas that only he can determine? Does this refer to the seeds of a European peace plan that so far includes a prisoner swap, a partial ceasefire at sea, in the air and in the energy infrastructure, and a limited European peacekeeping force? (Russian officials have already largely rejected this). Or is this about a peace theory that may be developed between Moscow and Washington, without Europe or Ukraine at the negotiating table?

The problem of agreements

This last idea should cause the greatest concern for European security and Ukrainian sovereignty. Keith Kellogg, Trump's envoy to Ukraine and Russia, noted that a draft agreement discussed in Istanbul in March 2022 - a hasty peace attempt that failed in the early stages of the war after the Irpin massacres of Ukrainian civilians - would not serve as a framework. Still, he called it a “starting point, at least.”

These proposed agreements required Ukraine to renounce its ambitions to join NATO - a goal now enshrined in the country's constitution. The draft also called for significant cultural changes, including the introduction of Russian as the official language. But most importantly, he tried to cap the Ukrainian armed forces so that they would have been significantly smaller than Russia's huge forces - in essence, this meant surrender. This was not about surrendering for peace, but about depriving Ukraine of the ability to credibly defend itself in the event of another Russian attack, as Ukraine has experienced more than 20 times in the last decade.

The consequences of geopolitical tensions

The pressure being put on Ukraine suggests that Tuesday's meeting in Riyadh - already extremely high stakes after the Disaster in the Oval Office a little over a week ago – is not intended as simple compensation. We could learn what kind of peace Trump envisions and how much of it aligns with Moscow's ambitions.

The role of the rule of law

The future security of Europe depends on how much “art of the deal” there is in this deal. The business world in which Trump operates is one in which he tries to make a purchase or a contract attractive to the other side. Perhaps he would fire the subcontractor's boss if the other side was dissatisfied with him (which could explain some loose comments about Zelensky's suitability for the job). Maybe he would tighten conditions to improve margins (pause military aid). Likewise, he could flatter his potential customers (like his hesitant attitude towards Putin).

But ultimately the deal would involve buying bricks and mortar or building them: a simple and predictable course of action or change of ownership, protected and guarded by lawyers and courts - by the rule of law. If the other side breaks the deal, Trump could sue. The precedents and courses of action would be well defined, and the rule of law would be on its side to ensure compliance with the terms of the treaty.

Russia's approach to the issue of law and order

Russia is not a big fan of the rule of law. It usually negotiates to buy time and advance its military objectives. So it literally captured the eastern Ukrainian town of Debaltseve during the first days of a ceasefire brokered in 2015, which followed its limited invasion of Ukraine the previous year. Trained in the KGB, Putin relies on the strategy of “maskirovka” (camouflage) and initially denied that his troops had invaded Crimea in 2014, but a few years later laughingly accepted that it was in fact his soldiers. If he were a business, his credit rating would probably be bad.

But Trump's belief, his instinct that Putin is trustworthy and wants peace, is now driving U.S. policy and changing America's role in the biggest war in Europe since the 1940s.

The consequences for Ukraine

The signs of the damage caused by this psychological blow are already emerging. Ukrainian forces are in danger in the Kursk region and could lose this small piece of Russian territory that was their only territorial leverage at the negotiating table. If they fall, the North Korean and Russian troops engaged there could then turn their attention to the rest of the Eastern Front, where Moscow has been making slow progress for months.

Ballistic missiles and drone attacks took place last weekend terrible record of civilian casualties even after Trump threatened sanctions against Moscow for "shelling" Ukraine, and the situation could worsen further as the pause in military aid reduces the number of U.S.-supplied Patriots that Ukraine relies on for air defense of its cities.

So far, the decline in American support for Ukraine has largely been limited to frenzied theaters in foreign capitals. This week there could be more details about the unclear peace Trump is seeking. And then the dismal outcome of these distant, hygienic hotel meetings in suits will likely turn into dust and loss in Ukraine.