Trump's Gulf Arab allies prevent war in Iran

Trump's Gulf Arab allies prevent war in Iran

The Gulf Arab states have increased their efforts to de-escalate the conflict with Iran, fearing the possible consequences of a complete regime collapse in Iran. In the last week, they intensified their exchanges with the Trump administration and with Tehran.

Diplomatic moves by the United Arab Emirates

The United Arab Emirates, a U.S. ally that has long opposed an unsupervised Iranian nuclear program, has been in touch with officials in Tehran and Washington to avoid further escalation. A senior official said the unstable situation in Iran could have repercussions throughout the region. Anwar Gargash, adviser to the UAE president, said on Friday: "We are following the situation very closely... our diplomacy is working hard, like many other countries. Concerns need to be resolved diplomatically... there are many issues in the region and if we approach everything with a hammer, nothing will be left unbroken."

Israeli attacks on Iran

Israel recently carried out an unprecedented attack on Iran, killing senior military officials and several nuclear scientists. Parts of the Iranian nuclear program were also destroyed. Iran responded with a series of rocket attacks on Israeli cities. Gargash stressed that further military escalation would be "detrimental" to the entire region, saying: "The language of conflict is overwhelming the new language of de-escalation and economic prosperity for the region."

International reactions and dialogue

Across the Gulf, growing anxiety about the conflict is driving efforts to prevent further escalation. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke to Trump and called for de-escalation shortly after Israel attacked Iran on June 13. The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, also addressed the president and called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. "We have used all possible channels of communication between the parties regionally and internationally. These discussions were about finding a way out of this escalation," Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said on Tuesday.

Trump and the pressure on Iran

Last month, Trump received a warm welcome and multibillion-dollar deals during a visit to three Gulf Arab states. On that occasion, he praised the “birth of a modern Middle East” and signaled his intention to sign an agreement with Iran to prevent the construction of a nuclear bomb. However, after Israel's attacks on the Iranian military leadership, Trump changed his tone and toyed with the idea of ​​US military intervention in Iran. The president's threats are raising concerns among his Arab allies and fears of Iranian retaliatory attacks on U.S. bases in the region.

The fear of further escalation

Gulf states, which have long criticized Iran's nuclear ambitions and its support of proxy militias across the Middle East, have softened their stance toward Tehran in recent years and turned to diplomatic solutions to avoid conflict. Experts warn that a US attack on Iran could lead to a conflict even more challenging than the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Such a protracted conflict could continue throughout Trump's presidency and cause significant losses in American lives and resources.

Desire for diplomatic dialogue

Firas Maksad, Eurasia Group's Middle East managing director, said that while Gulf states welcome a weakening of Iran, they prefer a diplomatic solution to ensure stability in the region. “If there is indeed a diplomatic breakthrough in which Iran's nuclear ambitions are at least contained, that would be a very positive outcome for the Gulf states,” said Maksad.

Trump recently announced a two-day diplomatic window that will give his Gulf Arab allies more leeway to push for de-escalation after the region was rocked by unprecedented conflict.