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Ukraine is now Trump’s war
Ukraine's war is increasingly becoming Donald Trump's responsibility. The article highlights his decisions, challenges and the geopolitical consequences in this crucial conflict.
Ukraine is now Trump’s war
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia, initiated by Vladimir Putin, is becoming the responsibility of US President Donald Trump. Despite all efforts to defuse the situation, the conflict in Ukraine will soon be viewed as Trump's war. The most powerful office in the world requires decisions, as the US was a key ally and supporter of Ukraine under Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden.
Trump's strategy in the Ukraine conflict
Trump had the opportunity to ignore the war entirely. But instead he tried to impose his personality by announcing that he could end the conflict within 24 hours, or a revised deadline of 100 days. He then tried to navigate the various players, first turning to the Russian president and then publicly criticizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office.
The role of NATO and international diplomacy
Trump demanded that his NATO allies pay more to defend Europe, which they did. However, the lengthy and arduous diplomatic work brought little significant progress. In the last two weeks, however, Trump's decisions and insights have changed such that he is now responsible for the conflict.
Putin's war aim and military aid for Ukraine
Trump realized that Putin does not want peace and that Ukraine urgently needs weapons. In a measured approach, he tried to help by responding to former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's often-ignored nuclear threats by responding with tougher nuclear threats of his own. Within weeks, U.S. policy shifted from a halt to military aid to Ukraine to nuclear threats against Russia.
The consequences of Trump's decisions
With a shorter time frame for a peace deal looming, Trump faces a crucial decision. Will he actually impose serious penalties on Russia's energy buyers in the form of secondary tariffs that cause real harm? Or is he willing to accept economic pain for the US and its allies in order to punish Russia?
Imposing serious secondary sanctions on India and China could significantly destabilize the global energy market. Trump recently announced that he would increase tariffs on Indian imports because they sell Russian crude oil for a profit. The question remains whether India will publicly stop its purchases of Russian energy products, while China is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas and cannot afford to stop buying.
Trump's hesitation and the future of the conflict
To avoid subjecting himself to a “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) moment, Trump will likely have to cause inconvenience and could incur some himself. He could also look for a way out if one is offered to him during an expected visit to Moscow. Perhaps he would accept a bilateral meeting with Putin to signal progress toward peace. But even such a retreat would not erase the indelible mark he left in the war.
War Responsibility and Challenges of the Presidency
Trump cannot simply choose which problems he is responsible for and which he can ignore. The America First program does not allow Trump to be blamed only for his successes and not for his failures. He is faced with the challenge of inheriting a crisis that will not leave him alone - the conflict will not simply disappear just because he wants it to.
At a time when Ukraine is fighting for survival, Trump must decide whether he is willing to make unpopular but necessary decisions as the gap between his desire for peace and the reality of war widens.