Putin's Russia: Stability or Destabilization under Authoritarian Rule?

Putin's Russia: Stability or Destabilization under Authoritarian Rule?

Historian Irina Scherbakova criticizes the stability of today's Russia under President Vladimir Putin. According to their assessment, the current system is less stable than the late Soviet Union. While there were clear structures for the party, state and administration in the Soviet Union, these are lacking today. She describes Putin's rule as authoritarian and organized according to the “mafia principle,” meaning that all power rests in one person. This concentration of power leads to a particular vulnerability: a sudden failure by Putin could destabilize the entire structure. Although Russia is under pressure from the ongoing war against Ukraine, Scherbakova maintains that the country has significant resources, particularly a strong security apparatus, which is nevertheless perceived as repressive.

Through the state-controlled transfiguration of history, Scherbakova criticizes the political repression in Russia and advocates for its reappraisal. Memorial, a human rights organization banned in Russia in 2021, has moved its work into exile. Scherbakova, who is chairwoman of the Zukunft Memorial association in Germany, emphasizes that the organization has the largest non-governmental archive on political persecution in the Soviet Union. This archive contains millions of documents and names and is currently being digitized.

The “Lanterna” project

Another important Memorial project is “Lanterna,” which aims to make individual stories from the history of Soviet and Russian state terror accessible to a young audience. This is part of a comprehensive approach that also covers international experiences of dictatorship, including in Germany, Argentina and South Africa. Scherbakova sees educating people about the past as an essential task in order to come to terms with experiences with totalitarian regimes and to increase awareness of human rights.

Putin has had power in Russia since 2000, with an interrupted term in office, and has further expanded this through constitutional reforms. In July 2020, a constitutional reform was introduced that theoretically allows him to rule until 2036. While popular support for Putin has declined, it is still relatively high. He promotes himself with the rhetoric of stability and economic growth. Despite challenges such as a suffering economy and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, Putin's rule remains consolidated through massive repression and sophisticated propaganda.

The political circumstances and resistance

The political opposition in Russia is under great pressure; according to forecasts, Putin will win the 2024 election with 87 percent of the vote. The Kremlin has turned its back on the rule of law and is violating international norms. Allegations of election manipulation and the suppression of opposition figures characterize the political landscape. Alexei Navalny, a prominent critic of Putin, has been imprisoned multiple times and reportedly died in prison, highlighting the current government's repressive structures.

Overall, developments in Russia show the dangers of a system that relies heavily on personal loyalty and repression. Scherbakova and the Memorial organization stand for remembering past repressions and for coming to terms with political history in order to create a basis for a hopefully better future.

For further information, here are the reports crown, from Bluewin and the Regional studies portal for Eastern Europe visible.