Trump demands China's help for peace in Ukraine - will Beijing act?
Trump demands China's help for peace in Ukraine - will Beijing act?
During the war in Ukraine for the fourth year, US President Donald Trump has made it clear which world leader he considers crucial to end the conflicts: xi jinping, the allies of Wladimir Putin. Trump expressed the hope that "China can help us especially with Russia and Ukraine ... About this situation, and we will work with you, ”said Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last month.
The role of China in conflict resolution
This hope expressed this hope in a conversation with the Chinese leader a few days before his inauguration the next few days at the annual security conference in Munich. Despite the challenge that Trump's plan for reconciliation of peace could make more complicated-in particular through the introduction of a General 10% Chinese imports to the United States-the Ukraine conflict could offer a rare opportunity to work, especially since Beijing tries to avoid increasing trade gaps.
China's position in the Ukraine conflict
"Given the risks of the relationship between the USA and China, if Trump describes China's cooperation as the decisive topic that could improve relationships, China will be very tried ... and could play a helpful role," said Yun Sun, director of the China program in the Stimson Center in Washington. At the same time, she added that Beijing would be careful to endanger his orientation towards Russia. China has long positioned itself as a potential peace broker in this conflict and has been positioning its own Peaceful suggestions promoted to terminate the war.
an outlook on the future
While the upcoming Munich Security Conference begins on Friday, the future of the conflict is expected to be strong on the agenda. The US Vice President JD vance With the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj meet . Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will also lead a delegation from Beijing. A dramatic change of sound in Washington's approach to the war hovers over the conference. Trump has questioned American help for the struck country, which was considered decisive for defense of sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the world order based on the world order under its predecessor Joe Biden and NATO allies.
Trump's suggestions and the reactions
In an FOX news interview at the beginning of this week, the notoriously transaction-oriented Trump suggested that the United States should have access to the rich natural resources of Ukraine in exchange for military aid. He also indicated that "The Ukraine could one day belong to Russia" and said that his administration had “Increasing progress” in the preparation of possible peace talks with Russia and Ukraine, without giving details. Members of the Trump administration will meet with Ukrainian officials in the coming days; Sources report that Finance Minister Scott Bessent Mineral deposits of the country.difficult negotiations ahead
Selenskyj has declared that he is ready to negotiate with Putin-but only if the United States and Europe continue to support and provide “security guarantees”, while Russia has confirmed in the past few days that it would only accept a peace that forces Ukraine to give up its ambitions to NATO membership and to resign from Russia.
Although Trump is pushing for a quick end of the war, his administration has so far not presented any specific details about the desired peace conditions. Observers also estimate how much Trump wants to work with XI - and whether the Chinese guide is ready - also partially depends on these parameters. In the past, western heads of state, without success, have tried to move Xi to push Putin into a peace that corresponds to the demands of Selenskyj and Ukraine.
During the conflict,china turned out to be an important diplomatic and economic lifeline for Russia, which is done, among other things, through the shipping of dual-use goods, which NATO leaders consider supportive for the Russian defense sector and its military. Beijing defends his trade as part of normal relationships with Russia.
China's strategic considerations
In Trump's eyes, all the XI influences Putin. But close observers of Chinese foreign policy say that the situation is not so easy. "Can China threaten to cancel the supply of vital goods to Russia? It can't, because China cannot afford a completely failed Russia," said Liu Dongshu, assistant professor at the City University of Hong Kong. He pointed out that Beijing has already recognized that his relationships with the United States and Europe have deteriorated so much that it has no choice but to further support its only powerful diplomatic ally.
Remarkably explained their "limitless" partnership, just a few weeks before Russian tanks exceeded the sovereign limits of Ukraine - a promise that was based on their joint rejection of NATO and the conviction that the west led by the USA is in decline, while they themselves were understood.The influence of the Ukraine conflict on foreign policy
XI also sees Putin a potential source of economic and diplomatic support, if Beijing is ever attacking Taiwan, some observers say. XI’s ambitions to control the self -administration of democracy could be another important reason why he carefully deals with every action that could endanger this relationship. He could also enjoy the war as a distraction for the United States that should concentrate on Asia and Taiwan - a point that Trump's followers, including Vice President Vance.
a potential turn in China's approach
The collaboration with Trump to urge Putin for negotiations - regardless of the contractual conditions - would also mark a significant change in Beijing's previous approach to the conflict. XI and his officials have the war as to promote a world guided by China in which the American alliance system is dismantled or weakened.
"China focuses on forming a coalition of non-western nations, including influential developing countries such as Brazil to use the Ukraine conflict to redesign the global security architecture and to advance an alternative vision of world order," explained Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow of the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace in the USA.
Currently Beijing has little incentive to engage in substantial cooperation with Washington, says Zhao, who emphasizes that the Chinese officials will wait and see which advantages could arise from a potential, comprehensive agreement with Trump.
In view of this, the current American President-a NATO critic who has repeatedly expressed personal admiration for Putin and XI-could be more attractive for both strong men as negotiating partners.Trump's previous statements and their effects
Before he took office,Trump had called for an "immediate ceasefire and negotiations" - a position that corresponds to Beijing's declared attitude to the war that was criticized in the West as helpful for Russia. In the past few weeks he has also repeated Moscow and Beijing's positions, compassionate At the point of view of the Kremlin that the Ukraine should not be part of NATO and that the war continues because the USA "started to pump equipment" to Ukraine.
While US MPs and some members of Trump's administration remain hard-hearted towards both countries, Trump's attitude raises the question of whether there could be an agreement that can be orchestrating Beijing, Moscow and Washington, which could like all three sides-and what this could mean for Ukraine and the future of the conflict. "You can see how every page could pull something off (certain peace agreement) - Putin can keep his face, XI and Trump can present themselves as peace pencils," said Robert Ward, director of geoeconomics and strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Great Britain.
However, there is a risk that in an agreement in which Russia remains in the possession of the Ukraine, which is currently occupied, this becomes a "conflict that does not end, but only a breathing space," says Ward.
In this report, CNN journalists Mariya Knight, Maria Kostenko, Frederik Pleitgen, Katharina Krebs and Caitlin Danaher took part.
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