Biden strengthened US alliances in Asia – will they survive Trump's next appointment?

Biden strengthened US alliances in Asia – will they survive Trump's next appointment?

The uncertainty created by Donald Trump's impending return to the White House is hitting America's friends in Asia at an untimely time. China has its military capabilities as well nuclear arsenal is modernizing and becoming increasingly aggressive, particularly with regard to territorial claims in the South China Sea and over Taiwan. North Korea has its belligerent rhetoric intensified and calls for the development of its illegal nuclear program. Both countries have their connections to Russia expanded, while it is at war with Ukraine, linking instability in Asia with that in Europe.

The role of the USA in Asia

For decades, the United States has supported the security of its allies in the region, where more American soldiers are stationed on active duty than anywhere else in the world. Tens of thousands of soldiers are based at extensive bases in the contracting partner countries South Korea and Japan. These countries, as well as the Philippines and Australia, are called upon to enlist US support in the event of an attack.

Preparing for Trump's return

Those countries are now preparing for the return of an American leader who is raging against what he sees as inadequate defense spending by his allies and calling for an “America First” approach to global commitments. Many questions about Trump concern leaders in Asia. Will demands for increased defense spending go beyond what allies can afford? Could he possibly withdraw US troops if such demands are not met? Will he potentially strike deals with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, North Korea's Kim Jong Un or Russian President Vladimir Putin that threaten the interests of U.S. allies?

US defense alliances in focus

After World War II, a network of U.S. alliances was created to serve as a strong deterrent against another global conflict. A central goal was to prevent additional countries from becoming nuclear powers by placing them under the protection of the US arsenal. In the eyes of many in Washington and Asia, these Asia-Pacific alliances have become more critical given strained relations in the region.

The associated uncertainties

China has security ties with NATO enemy Russia expanded and is accused of enabling Moscow's war by buying up Russian exports and providing needed dual-use goods. Beijing also has its own Intimidation of Taiwan that it claims for itself and wants to bring under control by force.

Political uncertainty in South Korea

Trump suggested in a recent interview with Bloomberg that South Korea should pay $10 billion a year to host American troops—about eight times more than the sums recently agreed between Seoul and Washington. Those comments have sparked fears in Seoul that he might try to renegotiate cost-sharing for U.S. troops, despite a recent five-year contract was signed, which will increase South Korea's spending until 2026.

Trump's economic focus

Analysts in Asia fear that Trump's return could also lead to increased economic pressure on China and that this development could potentially affect lines of communication between US forces and China, increasing the risk of conflict. It remains to be seen whether Trump will continue to support Biden's approaches, which include closer cooperation with Asian countries.

NATO and possible conflicts

Trump has been known in the past to put pressure on NATO allies, potentially making partnerships in the region fragile. During his campaign, he suggested he might reassess relations with Taiwan, raising concerns. US engagement on these issues is crucial to the perception of the US as a stable partner in Asia.

The coming months will show how Trump's policies will influence the geopolitical landscape in Asia and what impact this could have on relations between the US and its Asian allies.