Earthquake in Myanmar: Opportunity for military leaders in the crisis country

Earthquake in Myanmar: Opportunity for military leaders in the crisis country

Earthquakes are devastating for those who have lost loved ones, their homes and their livelihoods. But for military dictators fighting for power, such disasters can also bring opportunities.

The situation in Myanmar

The military government in Myanmar has been waging a brutal civil war in the Southeast Asian country for four years, with troops on bloody raids go, villages set on fire and bomb, residents massacre, Opponent imprison and force young men and women to join in Join the army.

The junta is led by a widely hated army leader who overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and installed himself as leader.

precariousness of power

But as with most emerging rulers, the rule of General Min Aung Hlaing precarious. He and his accomplices are internationally sanctioned and despised. The economy is in shambles and its military contenders are losing significant territory to a determined resistance in a grueling, multidimensional war.

By some reports, he controls barely 30% of the country.

The opportunities after the earthquake

As on March 28th a strong Earthquake of magnitude 7.7 Shaking central Myanmar, killing more than 3,700 people and causing widespread destruction, the general moved quickly to consolidate his position with a rare Call for help from the international community to consolidate.

“Min Aung Hlaing is using the earthquake for regional cooperation and
Electoral legitimacy," said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, a political science PhD student at Cornell University. "The humanitarian crisis gives him an excuse to open channels he had long closed."

Political strategies and international reactions

The openings included a face-to-face meeting between the junta leader and the Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, which currently holds the rotating chairmanship of ASEAN. The regional bloc had avoided high-level talks with Myanmar since the coup to avoid legitimizing the junta.

After the meeting in the Thai capital Bangkok, Anwar said he had a "frank and constructive discussion" with the general about humanitarian aid to earthquake-hit communities and discussed extending a military-declared ceasefire to facilitate aid deliveries.

Elections and pressure on the junta

Some say now is the time for countries to engage with Myanmar's military rulers to promote dialogue and peace. Four years of war have devastated the country; 3 million people have been displaced by the fighting, and the earthquake has deepened an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis with at least 20 million people in need of assistance.

"The main concern is the humanitarian situation. Sometimes a crisis like this provides an opportunity for all parties to come together and take into account the interests of the people ... perhaps it could lead to a dialogue process," said Sihasak Phuangketkeow, a former Thai deputy foreign minister who was involved in his country's efforts to integrate the State Administrative Council, the junta's official name.

Trust in the junta?

But some observers say the junta cannot be trusted when the military's history is littered with false promises that cover up an endless series of atrocities. Even as Anwar praised the military-declared ceasefire agreement, the junta restricted aid deliveries and intensified its deadly campaign of airstrikes in opposition-held areas that have reportedly killed dozens of civilians.

The prospect of peace

However, there is hope from some quarters that progress can be made this year. Following his talks with the junta leader, Anwar also held a much-lauded virtual meeting with National Unity Government (NUG) Prime Minister Mahn Win Khaing Than, which was ASEAN's first public meeting with Myanmar's shadow administration, made up of lawmakers deposed in the coup.

“I see 2025 as the year where we can either win or lose peace,” Sihasak said. To achieve this, international partners should “tie any dialogue to verifiable steps,” including “genuine humanitarian corridors, the release of political prisoners and binding guarantees for inclusive talks,” said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing of Cornell.

“Otherwise, the engagement will simply extend the lifeline of the junta at the expense of the Burmese people’s aspirations for democracy,” he added.