Earthquake in Myanmar: Chance for military leaders in the crisis country

Earthquake in Myanmar: Chance for military leaders in the crisis country

earthquakes are devastating for those who have lost beloved people, their homeland and their livelihood. But for military dictators who fight for their power, such disasters can also bring opportunities.

The location in Myanmar

The military government in Myanmar has been running a brutal civil war in the Southeast Asian country for four years, in which troops on bloody razzien , Dörfer and bomb, residents massacrating , opponent arrest and young men as well as women forcing themselves to the The Junta is led by a widely hated army guide who has overthrown the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and has committed himself as a guide.

But as with most of the rulers, the rule of General min aung Hlaing precarious. He and his accomplices are sanctioned and despised internationally. The economy is on the ground and its military attendants lose significant territory of a determined resistance in a grueling, multidimensional war.

After a few reports, he hardly controls 30 % of the country.

The chances according to the earthquake

as on March 28th a strong Earthquake 7.7 Central Myanmar shaken, killed more than 3,700 people and caused far-reaching destruction, the general acted quickly to his position with a rare to consolidate a call for help.

"Min aung hlaing uses the earthquake for regional cooperation and
Elective legitimacy, ”said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, a political science student at Cornell University.“ The humanitarian crisis offers him an excuse to open channels that he had closed for a long time. ”

political strategies and international reactions

The openings included a personal meeting between the Junta leader and the Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim , who currently has the rotating chair of Asean. The regional block had avoided high -ranking conversations with Myanmar since the coup, so as not to legitimize the Junta.

After the meeting in the Thai capital Bangkok, Anwar said that he had had an "open and constructive conversation" with the general about humanitarian aid for the municipalities affected by earthquakes and that the extension of a militarily declared ceasefire was discussed to facilitate auxiliary deliveries.

elections and the pressure on the junta

Some think that the time for countries has come to deal with Myanmar's military rulers to promote dialogue and peace. Four years of war devastated the country; 3 million people have been driven out by the fights, and the earthquake has deepened an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis in which at least 20 million people need help.

"The main concern applies to the humanitarian situation. Sometimes such a crisis offers the opportunity for all parties to come together and the interests of the people ... Perhaps it could lead to a dialogue process," said Sihasak Phuangketkeow, a former deputy foreign minister Thailand, who is involved in the efforts of his country to integrate the State Councilor, the official name of the Junta, was.

trust in the Junta?

But some observers believe that the Junta cannot be trusted if the history of the military is paved with false promises that disguise an endless series of atrocities. Also while Anwar praised the militarily proclaimed ceasefire agreement, the Junta limited the aid deliveries and intensified their fatal campaigns with air strikes in areas of the opposition that reported dozens of civilians.

The view of peace

"I see 2025 as the year in which we can either win or lose peace," said Sihasak. In order to achieve this, international partners should "establish any verifiable steps", including "real humanitarian corridors, the release of political prisoners and binding guarantees for inclusive discussions," said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing from Cornell.

"Otherwise, the commitment only extends the lifeline of the Junta at the expense of the efforts of the Burmese people after democracy," he added.