Ukraine attacks new Russian territory amid internal setbacks

Ukraine attacks new Russian territory amid internal setbacks

Ukrainian forces have responded to Russian efforts to drive them out of part of Russian territory by launching a variety of attacks on another border area. These attacks are carried out using drones, artillery and both ground troops.

Attacks in the Belgorod region

Over 20 villages in Russia's Belgorod region, spanning a 150-kilometer stretch along the Ukrainian border, were attacked, according to regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov. The Ukrainian army has not yet officially confirmed this operation.

Response to loss in the Kursk region

The incursion by Ukrainian forces appears to be a response to their recent losses in Russia's neighboring Kursk region, where they captured more than 1,000 square kilometers last August. In recent weeks, however, a new Russian offensive supported by North Korean troops has pushed them back to the border.

Strategic considerations

It is unclear whether the Ukrainian attacks in Belgorod are aimed at seizing and holding Russian territory or whether the push is a strategy to reduce pressure on Ukrainian troops in the Kursk area and the neighboring Ukrainian region of Sumy by redeploying Russian troops.

Russian invasions of Sumy

The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on Thursday that Russian units were trying to invade the Sumy region. On Saturday, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed its troops had captured a small settlement within the region.

The status of the Ukrainian offensive

So far, the Ukrainian push in Belgorod appears to be less ambitious than the offensive in Kursk last year. According to Russian officials, the offensive began nearly two weeks ago with several cross-border attacks.

Successes and losses

Ukraine's success in Belgorod is currently unclear. Unofficial Russian sources report a Ukrainian presence several kilometers inside Russia. A Russian military blogger said on Saturday that the Ukrainians had managed to gain a foothold in the village of Popovka and that "heavy fighting" was ongoing there.

Situation on other fronts

Elsewhere, Ukrainian forces appear to be under severe pressure. In eastern Ukraine, Russian troops are carrying out increased attacks in the Pokrovsk region of Donetsk - the highest intensity this year, according to the unofficial Ukrainian blog Deep State. Nevertheless, Deep State reports that Ukraine has been able to reduce its territorial losses since January.

Deterioration of the situation in Zaporizhia

Further south in Zaporizhzhia, the situation for the Ukrainian forces is deteriorating, according to military spokesman there, Vladislav Voloshin. On Friday, he announced that the number of Russian attacks carried out with small infantry groups had “significantly increased.”

Progress of Russian troops

Geolocated videos show that the Russians have advanced into the town of Shcherbaky. This city was claimed by the Russian Defense Ministry on Saturday. A Russian blog reported heavy fighting in the area.

Ukraine on the defensive

A Ukrainian military commentator acknowledged advances by Russian troops in the region bordering a key highway, but noted that Russian units have suffered significant losses.

Troop strength and occupation of Zaporizhia

Kostiantyn Mashovets, a Ukrainian military analyst, estimates that the Russians have concentrated up to 70,000 soldiers along the Zaporizhia front, as well as hundreds of tanks and artillery pieces.

Diplomatic Efforts and Ceasefire Negotiations

The Kremlin controls around three-quarters of Zaporizhia and has declared its complete annexation illegal. Negotiations on limited ceasefires, brokered with much fanfare by the US, are making little progress. The Kremlin has added several conditions to a ceasefire in the Black Sea that are unacceptable to both Ukraine and its European allies.

Interplay of accusations

Moscow and Kiev accuse each other of attacking energy facilities, despite an agreement earlier this month that they would stop doing so. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday that "Russia reserves the right not to comply with the moratorium on attacks in the energy sector, which Kiev constantly violates."

Outlook for future negotiations

A Russian negotiator said Friday that he does not expect a comprehensive ceasefire agreement until at least the end of this year. Grigory Karasin said the talks in Riyadh “did not lead to anything radical” and “it would be naive to hope for a breakthrough.” Progress could be expected at best by the end of the year.

Strategic plans of Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Russia plans to launch a multi-pronged offensive in the coming weeks to secure territorial gains before further ceasefire negotiations take place. "They are dragging out the talks and trying to drag the US into endless, pointless discussions on false 'conditions' just to buy time and then conquer more land," Zelensky said on Thursday during a visit to Paris. “Putin wants to negotiate the territory from a stronger position.”