Drone attacks before Russia-Ukraine peace talks endanger Trump

Drone attacks before Russia-Ukraine peace talks endanger Trump

It was difficult to imagine that the direct conversations between Russia and Ukraine, which are to be continued on Monday in Istanbul, could result in a breakthrough. According to the apparently multiple large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks It is even less likely, even less, that one of the two sides is ready to move their red lines.

The situation before the negotiations

already before the latest attacks that Russian strategic aircraft targeted thousands of kilometers from the Ukrainian border, the Kremlin had rejected to formally determine what exactly he would like to refer to what he refers to for the end of what he describes as a "high -halitative surgery". However, Russian civil servants openly communicate their hard conditions, including sovereignty over all annexed areas, the demilitarization of Ukraine, the immediate abolition of sanctions and what the Kremlin calls "denazification". The latter includes the guarantee of the rights of Russian speakers.

concerns about NATO expansion

concerns regarding a further NATO expansion towards Russian borders-especially in relation to Ukraine, but also other countries-are also a constant complaint by the Kremlin, as well as the fate of several hundred billion dollars of frozen Russian assets abroad. There is speculation in the Russian and Western media about possible negotiation topics, and the results of the talks in Istanbul are observed closely to recognize indications of any flexibility.

ukriane strengthens their position

According to the impression of a spectacular Ukrainian success, discussions about compromises on the part of the Kremlin seem to be off the table at the moment. Ukraine joins this second round of direct discussions strengthened by the obvious destruction of Russian strategic bombers and other important air assets. On Sunday, President Wolodymyr Selenskyj clarified some of Ukriane's positions, including an unconditional ceasefire and the return of Ukrainian children who were brought to Russia.

Russian demands and attack increases

The Russian demands for a deduction of Ukrainian troops from areas that they claim but have not yet conquered are still unsustainable. This applies all the more because Ukraine has shown that it can also strike deep behind the front lines. Although the latest Ukrainian drone attacks took place, Russia intensified the attacks on Ukraine before the peace talks in Istanbul, which apparently marks the early stages of a new summer offensive.

In the night of Saturday, Russia started the biggest drone attack since the beginning of the war with 472 drones. On Sunday, a Russian rocket strike killed at least 12 people and injured more than 60 at a training site of the Ukrainian armed forces. Against this background, the increasingly frustrated US President Donald Trump observes the developments because he once stated that he was able to end the Ukraine decline in a short time. Now it looks as if one of the cornerstones of his foreign policy is faltering.

Trump's options and the future of negotiations

Neither his pressure on the Ukrainian leader, whom Trump criticized in the Oval Office, nor his recent ruffle on the Kremlin seem to have contributed to bringing the two sides closer to a peace treaty. Trump continues to have mighty levers to increase the pressure, for example by imposing strict new sanctions, which are overwhelming in the US Senate, or by adapting the US military aid, which could dramatically increase the costs of long-term struggles. These measures could not be decisive, but a sign of US engagement.

The consequences of a withdrawal

Trump admits that he is tried to withdraw from all over chaos. "This is bidens of war," he emphasizes, or Putins and Selenskyjs. A retreat-and what this would mean in relation to US policy remains unclear-but could no longer be feasible. At least not without effects. His own assertion of wanting to end the Ukraine conflict together with his personal interventions among the Ukrainian and Russian leaders means that Trump and the United States are now inextricably linked to the outcome of the conflict. Therefore, the developments on the battlefield and at the negotiating table in Istanbul are observed so precisely.

Although he regularly tries to reject the conflict for himself, the Ukraine secretary has become a high degree of Trump's war on which the credibility of the United States now seems to be.