Global warming is threatening: New study shows alarming trends for our climate!

Global warming is threatening: New study shows alarming trends for our climate!

A current study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), published in the journal “Environmental Research Letters”, suggests that global warming could be more severe in the long term than previously assumed. The results show that the Paris goal of keeping global warming below two degrees Celsius is only achievable in scenarios with very low emissions and lower climate sensitivity values, such as vienna.at reported.

Climate sensitivity, a central element in climate research, describes the increase in temperature that can be expected if the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere doubles. The PIK study takes into account climate sensitivities between two and five degrees Celsius, as classified by the IPCC. PIK scientists highlight the importance of feedbacks in the carbon cycle, including permafrost thawing, which could push temperatures above two degrees Celsius, which vbio.de confirmed.

Long-term projections and emissions scenarios

PIK's study is the first of its kind to produce long-term climate projections over the next thousand years, taking into account all key feedbacks in the carbon cycle. The researchers used the advanced Earth system model CLIMBER-X, which integrates physical, biological and geochemical processes as well as an interactive carbon cycle. Using three low to moderate emission pathways, the research shows that even small changes in emissions can lead to significant global warming. This makes achieving the sustainability goals according to the Paris Agreement increasingly difficult.

Maximum warming could occur more strongly in the coming millennia in low to moderate emission scenarios than previously assumed. PIK Director Johan Rockström highlights that the window of opportunity to meet the 2 degree target is rapidly closing and the Earth system is losing stability, underlining the urgency to reduce emissions more quickly and actively remove CO₂ from the atmosphere.

Paris Agreement and its goals

The main goal of the Paris Agreement, which was adopted on December 12, 2015, is to keep the increase in global average temperature to, if possible, 1.5 degrees Celsius, but in any case below two degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era. Other goals include reducing emissions and promoting climate change adaptation measures, such as bmz.de mentioned.

The commitments of the 195 states that are part of this agreement include the development of national climate contributions (NDCs) and regular reports on progress. This extensive international cooperation stands in stark contrast to the Kyoto Protocol, which only made a contractual commitment to a few countries.

In the long term, the study sees that the goals of the Paris Agreement can only be achieved in combination with federal efforts to reduce emissions and achieve global climate goals. This makes the urgency of taking action against climate change even clearer.