Taiwan's presidential office simulates China's military escalation

Taiwan's presidential office simulates China's military escalation

In Taipei, Taiwan, the presidential office conducted a groundbreaking “tabletop” exercise that simulated military escalations by China. This first of its kind involved not only the armed forces but also various government agencies and civilian groups, underscoring Taipei's urgency to prepare for an increasingly assertive stance from Beijing.

Simulation of crisis scenarios

The exercise included central and local government units as well as civil society groups. The aim was to test the government's response to various scenarios should tensions across the Taiwan Strait escalate further. President Lai Ching-te said on Thursday evening: "We conducted a tabletop exercise to check the preparedness of each government agency in responding to extreme scenarios."

Preparations against threats

"We believe that as long as the government and society are well prepared, we can adequately respond to various threats - including natural disasters and authoritarian expansion," Lai added. The Chinese Communist Party claims the self-governing democracy as its own territory, but has never taken control of the island and does not rule out violent overreach.

Chinese military activities

In recent months, Taiwan has seen an increase in Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait and the Western Pacific. Chinese naval and coast guard vessels have increased their movement in regional waters, and the number of Chinese aircraft operating around the island has increased. China this month carried out the largest regional maritime deployment in decades, involving multiple formations of Chinese ships, according to Taiwan's defense ministry.

Exercises to increase resilience

China has also conducted two large-scale military exercises around Taiwan this year, in response to Lai's inauguration in May and a second during his National Day speech in October. Lai, who is openly hated in Beijing for his views on Taiwanese sovereignty, and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party have repeatedly rejected Beijing's territorial claims. They emphasize that the island's democratic future can be decided solely by its 23.5 million citizens.

Focused simulation on civil society reactions

Unlike traditional military war games, the tabletop exercise sought to test how various government agencies could “ensure the normal functioning of society” in times of crisis. The simulation included two scenarios: one in which China uses “high intensity” gray zone warfare tactics, and a second in which Taiwan is “on the brink of conflict.” Gray zone tactics refer to actions that are just below the threshold for an act of aggression.

Results of the exercise and future plans

Government agencies were not allowed to prepare notes in advance and had to respond immediately to various contingencies. Interior Minister Liu Shyh-fang, who was among the senior officials in the exercise, highlighted the need to improve Taiwan's ability to combat misinformation in extraordinary times as a key outcome of the simulation.

Liu said that although the Defense Ministry was well prepared, many government agencies had difficulty clarifying misinformation during power or internet outages. This highlights the need to have mechanisms in place to ensure the flow of information. Authorities also plan to recruit and train 50,000 public sector volunteers for disaster relief by the end of next year.

Lin Fei-fan, deputy secretary-general of Taiwan's National Security Council, added that the simulation is instrumental in increasing the island nation's resistance in society. “Conducting tabletop exercises at this time is critical to strengthen our preparations for the future and identify areas for improvement,” he added.