Trump's return: Effects on China through business and politics

China is preparing for an unsafe and potentially turbulent course in his intensifying conflict of power with the United States after Donald Trump celebrated a historical political comeback and in the Election campaign around the white house.

The effects of Trump's return

Trump's return could bring tariffs of up to 60% to Chinese goods - a step that could significantly jeopardize economic growth in China's economy, the second largest in the world and mess up the global supply chains. In addition, additional technology controls and a sharp rhetoric to Beijing can be expected, which could further strain the already tense relationships between the superpowers.

China's reaction to Trump's victory

Officially, China has tried to represent a neutral position on Trump's victory. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Wednesday that America's election was "respected". China's leader Xi Jinping congratulated Trump on Thursday and described him as a "very good friend", although the relationships between the USA and China decreased significantly during his tenure.

trade conflict and economic implications

While Trump's first term in office, the talented populist waged a tough trade war against China, the Huawei company put on the black list due to national security concerns and blamed Beijing for Covid 19 pandemic. At the end of his first term, bilateral relationships were at a historical low. Now Trump threatens to impose tariffs from 60% to all goods produced in China and to lift China's status as a "permanent normal trading relationship" partner, who granted the country the cheapest trade conditions with the USA over two decades.

The possible consequences for the Chinese economy

Such a measure could significantly impair China's economic growth, which is affected by a real estate crisis, falling consumption and increasing local debts. Investment bank Macquarie estimates that tariffs at this level could reduce the growth of the country by up to two percentage points, which corresponds to almost half of the expected annual economic growth of 5%.

changes in the international environment

Experts emphasize that Trump's "America First" policy and his transactional approach to Beijing could also offer opportunities. Despite the concern about the unpredictability of Trump's China policy, Beijing is also able to benefit from his challenges.

Beijing believes that Trump's hard tariffs could come across deep lack of understanding in Europe, which is an opportunity for China to strengthen its economic relations with Europe and to counteract American efforts to reduce the technology and trade exchange between China and the western world.

The Taiwan question and possible agreements

Beijing could try to use Trump's negotiating style, especially with regard to Taiwan. The China's Communist Party considers the island to be owned by its property, although it never had control over it. Under the previous Trump government, Taiwan received increased support in the form of arms purchases and diplomatic visits. However, Trump's recent statements have aroused concern about American commitment to the democratic island.

conclusions on the geopolitical situation

Trump emphasized his good relationships with Vladimir Putin and suggested that the United States could urge Ukraine into restless peace with Russia. While an end to the war in Ukraine could eliminate a critical point of view in the relationships between China and Europe, it could also complicate the alliance between Moscow and Beijing. Experts agree that Trump mainly focuses on China as the main opponent, which could possibly further strengthen Beijings in the international arena.