Russia's surprising ceasefire: the real strategy behind it

Russia's surprising ceasefire: the real strategy behind it

The announcement of an immediate ceasefire at Easter by Russia has shaken the western allies of Ukraine. The temporal version, the short -term character and the one -sided character of this explanation are evidence of the cynical attitude of Moscow with regard to peace. The announcement came just a few hours after the statements by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump, who in the coming days wanted an urgent sign of Kremlin that Russia was seriously trying for peace.

The challenges of ceasefire

For the supporters of Russia, President Vladimir Putin's statement appeared on Saturday as a gesture towards Trump. However, the fact that this sudden announcement with practical problems suggests that Putin will only use it to support his wrong picture that Kiev is not willing to end the war.

It will be a logistical challenge for the Ukrainian armed forces to stop Putin immediately and without warning with the fights. Some front positions could be in the intensive battle at this time, and such an ceasefire usually requires days of preparation and willingness.

misinformation and confusion

misinformation will most likely confuse the troops about how the ceasefire is to be implemented, how violations are reported or reacted to it and what happens when it comes to an end. It is possible that this moment is a rare sign that both sides can stop violence for a short time. However, it is far more likely that both sides will take advantage of violations and confusion in order to show that the opponent cannot be trusted. As the stand on Saturday evening, local time, Ukrainian officials reported that Russian attacks continued in frontal areas.

The distrust remains

The continuous 30-day ceasefire, which is limited to the energy infrastructure, was created under chaotic conditions. The White House announced that "energy and infrastructure" are covered, while the Kremlin said they immediately hired the attacks on "energy infrastructure". Ukraine, on the other hand, stated that the ceasefire started a week later than the Kremlin. Their implementation is characterized by distrust and mutual allegations about violations.

As early as January 2023, Moscow had submitted a similar one -sided explanation and called for a day of peace to enable the Orthodox Christians to celebrate Christmas. Kiev and Western leaders rejected this measure and viewed them as a strategic break for military purposes.

real negotiations are necessary

A real ceasefire requires negotiations with the opponent and preparatory measures. The quick advance seems to be completely designed to satisfy the demands of the White House for a sign that Russia is willing to end the fights. This could continue to fuel Trump's Pro-Moskauer framework conditions of the conflict and at the same time cause complications for Ukraine if they are inevitably accused of violating what Washington could understand as a friendly gesture.

The effects on diplomacy

Ultimately, this short, presumably theoretical, probably rhetorical and completely one -sided ceasefire in the course of a three -year war is probably more harmful to the role of diplomacy in the coming months to support it.