Putin's successes present Trump with difficult decisions

Putin's successes present Trump with difficult decisions

Russian President Vladimir Putin got everything he hoped for in Alaska, while President Donald Trump got little ahead of time based on his own metrics. The crucial question now is whether Trump was able to secure moderate progress or at least lay the foundations for Ukraine's future security if a peace treaty with Russia is reached. These results are not immediately obvious after the summit.

Strategic challenges for Trump

Despite Trump's claims that he has made "a lot of progress" and that the summit was a "10 out of 10," all signs point to a major victory for the Russian autocrat. Putin's pompous staged arrival, accompanied by simultaneous exits from presidential jets and a red carpet walk, represented a massive image boost for a leader isolated in the rest of the West and facing charges of war crimes in Ukraine.

By the end of the meeting, Trump had made a significant concession by agreeing with Russia's position that peace negotiations should focus on a final peace deal — which could take months or years — rather than an immediate ceasefire to stop the Russian offensive. As CNN reporter Nick Paton Walsh noted, this gives Putin more time to wear down Ukraine.

The geopolitical implications

Most importantly, Trump has backed away, at least for now, from threats to impose tough new sanctions on Russia and secondary sanctions against nations that buy Russian oil. He made the threats after becoming frustrated with Putin's intransigence and increasingly feeling like the Russian leader was outmaneuvering him.

Although this pressure may have brought Putin to Alaska, Trump appears to have received little in return. In an interview with Fox News after the summit, Trump said, "Because of what happened today, I don't think I need to think about that right now."

Dramatic power games

The meeting began with a B-2 stealth bomber and F-22 fighter jets dramatically flying over the site in a show of U.S. force. But Putin trumped that symbol with the words "Good afternoon, dear neighbor," suggesting that the two countries had important and immediate mutual interests that should not be disturbed by a far-off war in Europe.

For Ukrainians and their European allies who were left out of the meeting and subsequently briefed by Trump, there was at least a moment of relief that Trump did not sacrifice Kiev. The fact that a US-Russia land swap did not result from Alaska is a success for European diplomacy ahead of the summit.

Trump's other strategies

Before the summit, Trump had squashed his team's careful efforts to temper expectations, telling Fox News: "I won't be happy if I leave without some form of ceasefire." Failure to achieve this goal is crucial.

Ukraine suffers years of Russian drone and missile attacks on civilians as a generation bleeds to death in a World War I-like battlefield. Peace talks without a ceasefire leave Ukraine open to pressure from Russia or the USA. Trump's eagerness to bring peace to Ukraine is commendable, even if his public calls for a Nobel Peace Prize raise questions about his ultimate motives.

The way forward

Trump has the opportunity to believe in the Russian plan for talks on a final peace agreement. History shows that this will not be adhered to quickly or in the long term by the Russians. He hopes for a three-way summit between himself, Putin and Zelensky, which would satisfy his need for spectacle and big events. But given evidence that Russia is not interested in ending the war, it remains unclear how such talks could lead to breakthroughs.

There is also the possibility that Trump may simply lose patience or interest in the details of a long-term peace process that does not produce the quick wins that he is celebrating.

A setback for Trump's Nobel campaign

Donald Trump may remain the best hope for peace in Ukraine, especially because he can speak directly to Putin. Ultimately, US power will be needed to ensure Ukraine's security, as the Europeans are unable to do this alone. The US still has the ability to harm Russia and Putin through direct and secondary sanctions.

But Trump must also want this to happen. At the moment, however, he appears to be under Putin's influence again. The Russian president's apparent manipulation of Trump could be worrying for Ukraine.

In interviews, Trump said Putin praised his second term by declaring the U.S. was "like a pistol shot" and had previously believed the U.S. was "dead." Putin also publicly supported Trump's claim that the invasion three years ago "would never have happened" if he had been president.

His failure to end the Ukraine conflict, which he had described as easily solvable, will put his ambitions to go down in history as a peacemaker and win the Nobel Prize in the distance. Trump once predicted he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours. After the Alaska summit, a comment on Fox shows that he now realizes how difficult this actually is: "I thought this would be the easiest thing of all, and it was the hardest."