US China Commercial War: Trump's secret strategy revealed

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The rapidly intensifying trade war between the United States and China - the two leading geopolitical powers, whose economies are closely intertwined - threatens to damage both nations and will trigger global shock waves.

strategy or improvisation?

Since President Donald Trump has launched this potential disaster, the question arises as to whether he has a strategy and how he sees the final. Trump improvised as usual. His shocking escalation of the Customs on China No meaningful formula this week. As always, like a real estate shark that increases the missions to unbearable levels in order to gain an advantage. This is the latest manifestation of the "Crazy theory" Get up to intimidate his opponents.

massive risks for both sides

Maybe it will work, and China, which is not interested in ruining an economy that can no longer come up with breathtaking growth figures, will hastily return to the negotiating table. Many China experts believe that Beijing does not want to go to the edge of the abyss rather than Trump himself. But the risks are enormous.

"We are now in a large-scale (commercial) war with China, and the tariffs imposed on China are now what I would call prohibitive," said former finance minister Janet Yellen on Thursday at CNN International. "You will have a massive impact on the United States and the global economy. Nobody knows where this policy is going."

Trump's tactics and their consequences

Trump's tactics are based on the assumption that the threat of massive consequences of China will force negotiations-as was the case in its first term when both sides achieved a trade agreement that was never fully implemented before the COVID-19 pandemy largely brought relationships between the USA and Beijing to a standstill

The compulsion of economic measures could, however, backfire, since China's huge economic weight and sensitivity to insults from western powers, who see it as an attempt to prevent its rise, could cause serious counter -reactions. After years of nationalist politics and propaganda, the Chinese population will probably not react well to threats.

diplomacy on different levels

On Thursday, Trump confirmed that he increased the tariffs to Chinese imports to 145 % and insisted that his personal chemistry with President Xi Jinping will be decisive. "In a real sense, he has long been a friend of mine," he said at a cabinet meeting.

Trump often remembers the visit of XI in his Mar-A-Lago resort during his first term when the two "eaten the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake" and he informed his stunned guest about military attacks that he had just ordered in Syria. But such a "cake diplomacy" is unlikely in Trump's second term.

The challenges of a cooperation

Close cooperation between the global commercial nations of North America and Europe would be difficult for Beijing to ignore. Nevertheless, everything Trump has done since returning to the Oval Office has aimed to destroy this group of like -minded democracies. He criticized the European Union several times this week and said: "The EU was very hard over the years ... I always say that it was founded to really harm the United States in stores." This contradicts the US policy, which has aimed for many years to support a strong EU as an allies of prosperity, unity and democracy in a continent that was the focus of the bloodiest war in human history.

consequences of a trade war

A reason why a trade war between the USA and China could be so disruptive is the close interrelation of both economies. Years of integration have helped both countries: US consumers benefit from favorable access to clothing, shoes, electronics such as iPhones and other consumer goods, which has improved the quality of life of the middle class. China, on the other hand, used the US trade to expand production and free millions from poverty.

However, if the trade between the USA and China breaks off, the consequences will be painful. The prices for goods that make up an essential component of American life could increase suddenly, which could heat inflation and to worsen the quality of life for millions. This could weaken consumer confidence and lead the USA into a recession.

The search for a strategy

The magnitude of the potential conflict forces US officials to look for a strategy. One approach could be to use American strength and global power to put pressure on Beijing, for example in terms of market access, theft of intellectual property, industrial espionage and other problems. The only catch: it would be conflict with Trump's "America First" mantra.

The idea of ​​forming an anti-Chinese cooperation alliance from US allied powers is not new. In fact, Trump has already rejected it when on the first day of his first term from the trans-pacifier partnership agreement, which included 12 nations, including allies such as Mexico, Canada, Japan and Australia.

It could be too late to change the course. "The United States is currently an incredibly unreliable partner for everyone in the world, and I don't know how we can become a reliable partner again," said Jason Furman, who headed the advice of economists during the Obama government.