Ukrainian ceasefire is intended to force Putin to adopt war goals against Trump

Ukrainian ceasefire is intended to force Putin to adopt war goals against Trump

In Kiev, Ukraine, there will be a proposal on the table that the Kremlin can neither reject nor accept. However, this could present him with an unpleasant choice and thus the true interest of Russia's president Vladimir Putin in his brutal war reveal.

Europe's initiative for peace talks

Europe's leaders have grappled with the question of whether Peace talks over Ukraine could lead to tangible results in persuading Moscow to stop the violence, while aggression may tend to increase in the coming summer months.

30 days for Ukraine

This proposal gives Europe's largest army - Ukraine - just over 30 hours to prepare its frontline forces for what could be a month-long tense peace. Hoping for weeks of serious negotiations in which the country's borders will be decided.

Risks to European security

In the end, Ukraine, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland were faced with a clear decision: the public loss of patience on the part of the Trump administration – partly with Moscow, partly unjustified with Kiev – carries the risk that the White House will simply “move on”. This could mean the loss of US aid to Ukraine, as well as efforts to find a peaceful solution - a potential catastrophe for European security.

Diplomatic efforts at a high level

The clear diplomatic efforts of President Emmanuel Macron of France, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom and, of course, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have put the White House in a position where it is forced to support the European effort to control the outcome of the continent's biggest war since the 1940s.

Kremlin reactions and possible strategies

The Kremlin must now respond to the proposal. The previous answers such as “We need to talk about the nuances” are no longer sufficient. The Kremlin could agree to the proposal, but orchestrate a surge in violence and blame Ukraine for it. Alternatively, Moscow could question certain elements of the proposal or simply opt out of the proposal.

A tactical balancing act for Ukraine

The coming weeks are crucial for Ukraine and its allies. Questions remain unanswered: Will Kiev be able to order its forces not to defend themselves in the event of an attack? If the US is supposed to monitor the ceasefire, does it actually have the ability to monitor hundreds of miles of front lines? Accurate evidence of Moscow's violations will be crucial to adequately responding to the inevitable wave of Russian disinformation and allegations.

Costs of failure to act

The costs for Kyiv and Europe next month could be significant. Ukraine could lose territorial gains as its troops respond less violently to Russian attacks during the ceasefire. The unity of Europe, visible in Kiev today and supported by over a dozen other countries from New Zealand to Canada, could suffer greatly, especially if American support for Ukraine wanes.

Future outlook: Looking for peace

Ukraine and its European allies are seeking clarity about whether Putin is actually interested in some form of peace. However, the path taken to get there is unclear and marked by Putin's manipulations. At this critical juncture, the leaders of Europe's five largest armies in Kiev appear to have come to the conclusion that Putin does not want peace and will not really face a month of calm.

The coming weeks will be a challenge to solidify this insight and persuade Trump to take a more consistent stance on Russia than his predecessor, Joe Biden. The path European leaders see for the coming months points to an escalation in the war, with Putin violating a ceasefire and hit with "massive sanctions" while Europe steps up its military support for Ukraine.