Trump-Putin summit in Alaska: slow defeat for Ukraine

Trump-Putin summit in Alaska: slow defeat for Ukraine

In a surprise move, former US President Donald Trump announced that Alaska, which Russia sold to the United States for $7.2 million 158 years ago, will be the place where Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to sell his once-in-a-century overland deal. This agreement would allow Putin to obtain parts of areas in Ukraine that he has not yet been able to occupy. The terms of Friday's upcoming summit clearly benefit Moscow, stoking concerns over previous proposals from Trump representative Steve Witkoff, who suggested that Ukraine should cede remaining territories in Donetsk and Luhansk in exchange for a ceasefire.

The reaction of Kyiv and its allies

The reaction from Kiev and European allies to Witkoff's early ideas has been one of understandable horror. It is difficult to imagine how such a bilateral meeting could result in an agreement that does not undermine Ukraine's sovereignty. The Kremlin has repeatedly promoted the idea of ​​winning the country without fighting. Witkoff himself has shown in the past that he does not take Ukrainian sovereignty seriously and has not considered that in the fourth year of its invasion, Ukraine is being asked to abandon cities for which it has lost thousands of soldiers.

Details of Witkoff's proposal

Witkoff's suggestion is worth considering. Russia is close to surrounding Donetsk's two key cities of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka and could effectively lay siege to Ukrainian troops defending those two hubs in the coming weeks. It is entirely possible that Kiev could abandon these cities for strategic reasons in order to preserve troop strength.

Concern about civilian casualties

The situation in the rest of the Donetsk region, especially in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, looks bleak. Thousands of civilians currently live there, and Moscow would be happy to see scenes of these cities being evacuated as Russian troops march in without resistance.

Resistance from the Ukrainian side

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the proposal to cede land on Saturday morning. This reflects the dilemma of a commander in chief who must manage the anger of his military and the Ukrainian people's deep-rooted distrust of Russia, which continues to bomb their cities. Whether a pink solution, as suggested by Trump, is realistic remains questionable. A possible exchange could include the small areas occupied by Russia in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, but realistically not much more will come of it.

The challenges of a ceasefire

The main goal remains a ceasefire, but even this seems ambitious. Putin has already made it clear that an immediate ceasefire, as the US, Europe and Ukraine have been demanding for months, is impossible because technical work on surveillance and logistics is required beforehand. Given his troops' current military advantage on the Eastern Front, he is unlikely to change his mind.

The geopolitical dimension

Europe is cautious not to repeat the failure of former British Foreign Secretary Neville Chamberlain, who failed to rebel against Nazi Germany in 1938. Familiarity with a “piece of paper” handed over by a Kremlin that has repeatedly made deals in Ukraine, only to use this time to regroup and attack again, adds additional weight to the situation.

Putin's clear goals

Putin has made it clear from the start what he wants: the complete subjugation or occupation of Ukraine and a strategic new beginning with the USA that affects Boston and Moscow. His adviser, Yury Ushakov, praised Alaska as a great place to discuss economic cooperation between Washington and Moscow and hinted at a future summit in Russia.

The risks of further escalation

There is a danger that too much familiarity will develop between Trump and Putin. This could allow the US president to initiate more technical meetings between staff from both sides to discuss the terms of a possible ceasefire. A land sales plan that works entirely in Moscow's favor could eventually be presented to Kiev, with the US's old ultimatums about aid and information sharing tied to acceptance of such a deal.

The role of other countries

In recent days, both India and China have been in contact with the Kremlin, which may have given the Russian president impetus to talk to Trump. Both countries are concerned about the potential damage Trump could cause through secondary sanctions. However, Putin probably didn't need much of a push to agree to a formal invitation to the US.

Trump's changing perspective

Trump himself has changed his view of Putin. Terms like “disappointed” and “disgusting” are new to his vocabulary about the Kremlin leader. While Trump seems to effortlessly manage not to seriously harm Moscow, he has allies and Republicans at his side who remind him of how far he has veered toward this course in the past.

A gloomy omen for Kyiv

Although there are still a few days left until the meeting, signs already seem to point to a slow defeat for Kiev. Once again, Putin could use the opportunity to get to the territories he wanted without further fighting, while Trump, at best, failed to reach the agreement he hoped for and, at worst, received nothing more than lip service.