Flood balance: Diche in Flensburg still dilapidated!

Flood balance: Diche in Flensburg still dilapidated!

A year after the devastating flood of storms on the Baltic Sea, the episodes are far from overcome. Schleswig-Holstein put the flood of October 20, 2023 into a state of emergency. Over 200 million euros in damage and a death are the balance of an accident that was rarely seen in its intensity. The level in Flensburg reached historical heights, which were last recorded in 1872. The country's Environment Minister, Tobias Goldschmidt, recently warned of further potential storm surges in the future and pointed out that the sea level could increase by 80 centimeters by the end of the century.

In this difficult situation, the question is how the authorities can improve their warning systems. Political and official managers have to learn from the experience of the past few months in order to be better prepared for future flood events. There are already initial measures, but a complete restoration is not yet in sight.

unfinished dike work and impending dangers

Overall, Schleswig-Holstein still notes serious damage to over six kilometers of dike line. Many repairs are incomplete. A construction site is located in Süssau, where the cover is behind the schedules. It is also reported that the repairs at the Baltic Sea pond in Oehe and at the Weidefeld regional pond can only be completed in 2025.

Jörg Reinhardt, the head of disaster protection in the Schleswig-Flensburg district, commented concerns about the regional pond near Oehe-Maasholm, the condition of which is described as "partially disturbed". If a storm surge similar to last year, this could lead to even greater damage. However, Goldschmidt assured that the dye sections will be secured until the upcoming storm flood season.

In order to improve flood protection in the long term, the country has invested over 24 million euros in repair measures. The water and soil associations are currently responsible for maintaining the regional ponds. However, some small associations find this responsibility too great, which is why discussions take place as to whether some dikes can be handed over to the state administration.

The challenges in the weather forecast

On the flood Friday, the actual levels surprised the city of Flensburg, since the official forecasts of the Federal Office for Sea shipping and hydrography (BSH) were significantly lower. The city stated that the flood height was underestimated by almost 30 centimeters, which not only endangered the disaster protection measures, but also made it difficult to plan the operations of fire brigade and other auxiliary services.

In response to these unexpected levels, Flensburg will also use data from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) in order to make more precise predictions. The Danish models usually warn with a wider range of possible water levels, which could contribute to better preparation.

In order to further increase the content of the water level forecasts, the BSH is planning to carry out several parallel weather model calculations. Different scenarios are to be taken into account and statistically evaluated. This strategy could help to reflect loss and damage probabilities more realistically.

In addition to the infrastructural challenges, Flensburg plans to apply for funding from the country's rebuilding fund in order to rebuild the sucked kaicer. The city estimates the costs of the project up to 15 million euros. The prerequisite for funding is that the causes of sagging can clearly be attributed to the storm surge. The project could employ the city for several years because the demolition work has already experienced delays.

The painful balance of the historical storm surge illustrates the urgent need for structural and strategic changes in the flood protection measures in Schleswig-Holstein in order to be prepared and prepared in the face of climate change.

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