A year after the flood of the century: How safe is Flensburg now?

A year after the flood of the century: How safe is Flensburg now?

A year after the devastating flood of storms on the Baltic Sea, which particularly hit Schleswig-Holstein hard, the picture remains shaped in many regions of construction sites and unfinished repairs. On October 20, 2023, the flood not only demanded a human life, but also caused immense damage of around 200 million euros. The water level in Flensburg reached record heights, which were last recorded in 1872. Many citizens are concerned that similar disasters can appear repeatedly in the future. Environment Minister Goldschmidt urgently warned of an increasing sea level that could increase up to 80 centimeters by the end of the century.

One of the most pressing questions is how the infrastructure, especially the dikes, can be better prepared for future storm surges. In several cases, the repairs have not yet been completed. According to the Ministry of the Environment, there is a need for repairs over a total length of six and a half kilometers on the Baltic Sea lines. The regional ponds in municipal responsibility are particularly affected, which could not be completely repaired. In the district of Schleswig-Flensburg, for example, the restoration at the Baltic Sea pond in Oehe and at the Weidefeld regional pond is so extensive that this work can only be completed in 2025.

construction sites and challenges in dike construction

Jörg Reinhardt, head of civil protection in the district of Schleswig-Flensburg, commented on the condition of the dike: The dike near Oehe-Maasholm is still largely damaged. "We hope that we will be spared another storm surge in this intensity this year," said Reinhardt. If such a flood still occurs, it fears even more extensive damage. In order to secure the remaining dye sections and protect the population, the Ministry of the Environment has assured that suitable measures are taken over the winter.

The country has already provided over 24 million euros to repair the regional ponds. However, some water and soil associations are eliminated due to the enormous costs of their responsibility. Minister Goldschmidt has offered that the country could take responsibility for certain dikes. To this end, the associations of Oehe-Maasholm and Grödersby could be ready to share the load and benefit from the expertise of the state company for coastal protection.

weather forecasts and future preparations

A crucial lesson from the last storm surge is the unreliability of the weather forecasts. The actual levels in Flensburg were clearly above the predictions of the Federal Office for Sea shipping and hydrography (BSH). One had expected water levels of just two meters above the middle water level, but the reality was up to 30 centimeters higher. These misjudgments meant that the city and its emergency services were not optimally prepared for the challenges.

To counteract this, Flensburg plans to incorporate data from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) into their predictions. In the past, Danish models had predicted higher levels that were more realistic. This cooperation could specify the predictions for future storm surges and thus improve the application planning of disaster protection.

In order to improve the predictions for the water levels, the BSH is working on using several models at the same time and statistically evaluating their results. This ensures that different weather forecasts are taken into account and enable the uncertainties more precisely.

In addition, the city of Flensburg would like to apply for a new construction of the sucked Kaikte Finanzhilfe from the state's reconstruction fund. The cost of this project could be up to 15 million euros. The basis for the approval is that the queue of the quay is recognized as a direct consequence of the storm surge. The application must be submitted to the country by the end of October. The city expects a period of about five years to complete the work.

It remains to be seen how the repair measures and the new cooperation with the Danish weather reports will improve the security of citizens in Flensburg and related communities. The multitude of construction sites and the still open questions about the storm surge mark a time of change that enables those responsible to draw teaching from the past and to strengthen the coastal protection infrastructure for the future.