Gaza ceasefire ends soon – the next challenges await

Gaza ceasefire ends soon – the next challenges await

It was unlikely from the start. For months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refused Agreement to sign a ceasefire with Hamas, although he repeatedly emphasized that he hostages wanted to bring home from Gaza. Even the sustained pressure of tens of thousands of demonstrators could not bring him to the negotiating table.

Ceasefire agreement reached

But the combined pressure of the outgoing and the future US president led to Netanyahu agreeing to a 42-day ceasefire. This was intended to enable the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for more than 1,700 Palestinian prisoners and aid for Gaza. Ultimately, 38 hostages were released over 39 days.

New negotiating framework

The agreement that was ultimately signed was essentially the same agreement that had been on the table for almost a year, according to then-US President Joe Biden. The final, 42nd day of this ceasefire falls on a Saturday. The agreement stipulates that the ceasefire can be maintained as long as negotiations take place. So it could definitely continue. But while the first phase of negotiations was already challenging, what comes next will be much more difficult.

Second phase of negotiations

The second phase of a ceasefire, expected to last another 42 days, would mean the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and the release of all of Hamas' remaining hostages - an estimated 24 men - in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners and detainees. But talks about next steps have only just begun, and Netanyahu has made it increasingly clear that he is not interested in this framework.

Resistance to a peace plan

The second phase would mean a declaration that the war is over. “That will never happen,” CNN quoted an Israeli source as saying. Netanyahu missed the Feb. 3 deadline to send a negotiating team, opting instead to visit U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington. Shortly before the end, he announced that he would send a team to Cairo - but without the main negotiator, his close political ally, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer.

Continued military presence

An Israeli official told CNN that the military will continue to occupy the crucial border between Gaza and Egypt, known as the Philadelphia Corridor, even after the first phase of the ceasefire expires. Under the terms of an elusive second phase, Israel was to begin withdrawing at that border that day and complete it within eight days, Hamas said.

International diplomacy

US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff expressed told CNN the hope of obtaining an extension of the first phase in order to negotiate the second phase.

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar said on Thursday in a conversation with his Czech counterpart that they would resolutely seek the release of all hostages. However, he did not mention that there is already a legal framework for this, agreed in January in the Qatari capital.

Hamas’s patience is being tested

Hamas has repeatedly committed to a ceasefire. Despite an incident in which the group sent the body of an unidentified Palestinian woman to Israel in place of Shiri Bibas - which it said was accidentally - it has largely complied with the agreement. But the big question remains unanswered: Will she disarm and leave Gaza?

Future prospects for Gaza

Hamas leaders, scattered between Gaza and the region, have been alternately optimistic and conciliatory - but have consistently refused to comment on the issue of disarmament. Osama Hamdan, a member of the group's political office, said in Qatar last week: "Hamas was not wiped out by the war. Whoever takes Israel's place (in Gaza) will be treated like Israel." He stressed that Hamas “has the opportunity to expand.”

Another statement came from Husam Badran, another official member of the political office, who said on Wednesday that the group was ready to withdraw from Gaza's administration. “Our only condition is that this remains an internal Palestinian matter – we will not allow any regional or international party to interfere,” he told Al Arabiya. “As long as there is a national consensus, Hamas will not be involved in governance.”

Netanyahu's unresolved questions

Netanyahu continues to refuse to reveal his vision for Gaza's future. He says only that he supports Trump's plan for "another Gaza," which would involve emigrating all 2.1 million Palestinians from the area and building one xanadu-like Gulf state includes. He believes that neither the Palestinian Authority, which rules from the West Bank, nor Hamas should rule Gaza.

For all its objectionable aspects, Trump's plan could take advantage of a leadership vacuum that exists not only from Netanyahu but also in the region. Arab leaders are working diligently on it, to develop their own vision for rebuilding Gaza – while allowing the Palestinians to stay.

Future developments in Gaza

An indefinite extension of the first phase would suit an Israeli prime minister whose extremist ministerial allies intend to bomb Gaza again and rebuild Jewish settlements displaced 20 years ago. However, this does not mean that war in Gaza is imminent. “There is no desire to reignite the war,” the Israeli source said. “However, there is a desire to move forward together with the United States.”

The question in the coming hours and days will be whether Hamas would be willing to give up its most important negotiating asset - the hostages - without any promise to end the war. “Netanyahu's plan to extend the first phase to release more hostages without committing to ending the war and withdrawing Israeli troops from Gaza is completely rejected by Hamas,” former long-time peace negotiator Gershon Baskin said on Monday.

Hamas' leaders inside Gaza are, Baskin said, becoming "increasingly independent of leaders outside Gaza." These exiled leaders are more willing to resume the war, “fully aware that their influence is the lives of the remaining hostages.” Those inside Gaza “will not hesitate to take revenge on the hostages if fighting flares up again,” he warned. "The war is over, even if Netanyahu doesn't realize it. The alternatives to Hamas will be the result of political decisions and no more fighting."

Kareem Khadder and Zeena Saifi contributed to this report.