Asteroid 2024 YR4: Threat to Earth or just a short scare?

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Threat to Earth or just a short scare?

The recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 is causing concern worldwide. Astronomers calculate a small but existential possibility that it could hit Earth on December 22, 2032. Initial estimates of impact probability were 1.2 percent, while current calculations have raised it to 2.3 percent. The 40 to 100 meter wide celestial body, discovered on December 27, 2024 with the ATLAS telescope in Chile, could cause massive destruction in the event of an impact and possibly wipe out an entire city kosmo.at reported.

Close observation by ESA

The European Space Agency (ESA) has classified the asteroid as level 3 on the Torino scale, meaning it needs special attention. If YR4 hits in 2024, the destruction could be devastating in major cities like Paris, London or New York, warned Bruce Betts of the Planetary Society. ESA has intensified its observations and plans to use the James Webb Space Telescope to analyze the asteroid in more detail. This telescope can measure the infrared radiation from asteroids, helping make more accurate size and orbit estimates, so esa.int.

The international community is also taking action to manage possible risks. Two UN-backed international response groups, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), are already considering their next steps. Astronomers are currently tasked with categorizing the asteroid's orbit and structure and hope to be able to observe it better again in 2028. This careful monitoring, as well as Eksperten's dramatic statement that an asteroid of this size impacts Earth every few millennia, illustrate the urgency of the situation.