Development of unemployment: Where it looks worst in 2025!

Development of unemployment: Where it looks worst in 2025!

The German economy is facing enormous challenges that not only affect jobs, but also the future of employment in the country. According to a recent survey, 43 percent of companies plan to cut jobs in the coming years. The Federal Employment Agency expects a shocking figure of three million unemployed by 2025. This situation is exacerbated by rising energy prices and the lack of skilled workers, which makes it difficult for companies to fill their vacancies, even in times of skilled labor shortages.

However, a forecast from marketing and services company Pens.com expects the overall unemployment rate to fall by 2030. The biggest declines, up to 49 percent, are forecast in Saxony, while Saarland brings up the rear with a decline of just 11 percent. This could indicate that the economy in some states is more resilient than in others. Federal states such as Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg in particular stand out for their relatively low unemployment rates, with 155 and 179 unemployed per 10,000 inhabitants in 2025, while Bremen and Berlin will have the most unfavorable values ​​with 573 and 418 unemployed per 10,000 inhabitants respectively. These figures are based on the most recently published data from the Federal Employment Agency.

Forecasts and challenges

Although the forecasts for many federal states appear positive, there are also some gloomy aspects. The decline in unemployment is due not only to an increase in employment, but also to a decreasing working-age population, particularly in the eastern states. Demographic trends show that the population numbers in regions such as Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Brandenburg could shrink by up to 25 percent by 2045. This poses the risk that, despite falling unemployment, the challenges of filling new positions will increase.

It remains to be seen how the economic situation will develop and what measures will be taken to avoid job losses. According to the statistics on the unemployment rate by federal state, it is clear that there will be strong employment-promoting projects in cities such as Dresden and Leipzig, which are necessary to counteract the declining number of jobs in the affected regions. In order to cushion demographic change, immigration will also be urgently needed.

For detailed information on the unemployment situation in Germany, see the analysis by Mercury and the current annual statistics from Statista.