Trump's peace efforts in Ukraine: What does it mean for China?

Trump's peace efforts in Ukraine: What does it mean for China?

In recent days, there has been increasing clarity about US President Donald Trump's plans to end the Russian war in Ukraine. His government appears to be accepting some of the Kremlin's key demands, including conditions that Ukraine not join NATO and not return to its pre-2014 sovereign borders.

Trump's new focus on China

Amid the uncertainty over Trump's newly formulated peace policy, another goal of the government is coming into focus: a rethink from Europe to China. At a meeting in Brussels, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that “strong strategic realities prevent the United States from focusing primarily on the security of Europe.” He emphasized that national security also includes securing the US borders and developments in Beijing.

Evoking a new competition

“We also face an equal competitor in the communist People’s Republic of China that has the ability and intent to threaten our homeland and our fundamental national interests in the Indo-Pacific,” Hegseth said. The USA is therefore prioritizing deterrence of war with China in the Pacific and is making the necessary resource priorities to ensure that deterrence does not fail.

China's response to US policy

Beijing is closely monitoring Hegseth's comments as the US stepped up its economic competition with China earlier this month. A general one 10% tariff on all Chinese imports has been introduced, with the possibility of further action in the future. China has responded to the unexpectedly positive start to Trump's second term as he continued to make positive comments about Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the potential for cooperation between the two.

The geopolitical consequences

Beijing had probably hoped that Trump's reshaping of US foreign policy would weaken American alliances in Asia. China has increasingly resented strengthened ties between the U.S. and partners such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines under former President Joe Biden.

It is now clear that China will be watching closely as the US adjusts its posture and focus in a region where Beijing hopes to expand its influence and stake claims over the South China Sea and the self-ruled democracy of Taiwan.

Russia and the Impact on US-Chinese Relations

Another pressing concern for Beijing could be whether Trump's overtures to Russian President Vladimir Putin will alienate Moscow, a crucial ally for Xi in his competition with the West, from Beijing toward Washington. The two leaders had declared a “partnership without borders” just days before Russian tanks rolled over the border with Ukraine.

Relations between Russia and China have long been based on a shared dislike of NATO and US alliances. Putin and Xi worked together to non-Western international groups building and doing so joint military exercises to intensify and support each other in forums such as the United Nations.

Consequences for China's global ambitions

An improved relationship between Putin and Washington could have far-reaching implications for China's ability to fend off U.S. pressure and advance Xi's vision for an alternative to an American-led world order.