Trump is forcing India and China into an emergency marriage - a complicated relationship

Trump is forcing India and China into an emergency marriage - a complicated relationship

Relations between India and China are characterized by a bloody border conflict, a significant power imbalance and an intense competition for influence across Asia. But President Donald Trump's latest trade war measures could do the unimaginable: push India and China into a cautious but strategic embrace.

The impact of Trump's trade wars

Trump's announcement of a new 25% base tariff on India - later set to rise to a staggering 50% as an additional penalty for buying Russian oil - somewhat reflects the long-running pressure campaigns he has waged against China. This creates a common interest between New Delhi and Beijing.

Although an easing of tensions in the strained relationship between India and China was already underway, experts say Trump's actions have reinforced that shift. New Delhi and Beijing must now navigate an unpredictable Washington that treats strategic partners and geopolitical rivals with the same transactional condescension whether they are in Europe or Asia.

The Tactical Realignment between India and China

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reportedly planning to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit later this month, which would be his first trip to China in seven years. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said Beijing “welcomes” Modi to the meeting.

However, analysts warn that this alliance is extremely pragmatic and not born of conviction. The deep-rooted suspicious relationship between the two Asian giants, stemming from their border conflict and power struggle for regional dominance, remains unchanged. The current cohesion is not determined by a common vision, but by a common opponent in the White House.

Trust in the USA is dwindling

India's relationship with the US has changed dramatically, from Cold War estrangement to a crucial partnership in the 21st century. The relationship reached new heights under Modi, driven in part by the personal connection he developed during Trump's first term. Deeper cooperation between New Delhi and Washington became more critical as the relationship between India and China deteriorated sharply after deadly border clashes in 2020.

The Biden administration deepened U.S. engagement with India and identified New Delhi as a key counterweight to China's growing influence. President Joe Biden often praised Modi while largely brushing aside harsh criticism from human rights groups over the Modi government's alleged democratic backsliding.

India stands firm despite threats

Trump's new 36% tariff on Indian imports, which sources 36% of crude oil from Russia, could threaten US strategic aspirations. Analysts warn that this massively undermines India's trust in Washington. India called the tariffs “unfair” and “uncalled for,” noting that the U.S. and Europe continue to buy Russian fertilizers and chemicals.

Sentiment towards the US is hardening in India, partly because of Trump's approach. Modi, who is under pressure from opposition politicians, defended his country's interests at a recent event and stressed that India will never compromise on the interests of farmers and fishermen.

The geopolitical consequences of US policy

The unintended consequences of Trump's policies could lead to historically rival countries India and China forming a strategic alliance. After Modi met Chinese leader Xi Jinping last October, the relationship between India and China has gradually normalized. Both countries have begun resuming direct commercial flights and Beijing has reopened two pilgrimage sites.

Expert Vaishnav predicts a future of duality: “I expect that we will see increasing economic cooperation combined with strategic competition.” However, this convergence remains limited by deep distrust between the two countries, resulting from deadly border conflicts and China's strategic entrenchment in Pakistan.

Conclusion

The way Trump manages relations with India could ultimately undermine China's intended geopolitical isolation. Trump's actions could lead India to align itself more closely with Russia and, paradoxically, with China and to negotiate jointly against US tariff measures, which could threaten US strategic interests in the region.