Trump tariffs endangered, and ports have not yet shown a course upswing

Trump tariffs endangered, and ports have not yet shown a course upswing

The US ports record pandemic-like declines in imports, which is why the port managers had hoped for good news regarding the tariffs.

court blocks Trump's tariffs

For a short time on Wednesday, it looked as if retailers and ports had received exactly what they hoped for: a court blocked many of President Donald Trump's tariffs. However, a Federal Appeal Court quickly paused this judgment on Thursday.

The effects of customs changes

Such setbacks illustrate why even when news about the facilitating of tariffs did not flow immediately into the US ports. This could mean that fewer goods are available in retail in the coming months, which reduces the selection and drives the prices for American consumers.

"I think it was expectation that everything will suddenly be imported again. But I don't think you see a massive return, because people are still careful how to proceed," said Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Liefing and Customs Policy at the National Retail Federation.

Port of Los Angeles and import returns

Even after Trump reduced the tariffs on China from 145 % to 30 % at the beginning of the month, America's greatest ports show no relaxation. The Port of Los Angeles reported a decline in 30 % compared to the previous year in the last week of May. The Northwest Seaport Alliance, which represents the ports of Seattle and Tacoma, also reported a decline in imports by 30 % from the last week of April to the first week of May, and the volume is significantly lower compared to the previous year.

chaotic trading situation

The decision of a US court in Manhattan caused new unrest in the trade on Wednesday evening. The verdict blocked part of Trump's tariffs, including a 10 %customs for most imports and higher taxes on goods from China, Mexico and Canada. The White House has appealed, and by Thursday afternoon a Federal Court of Appeal restored the tariffs until both parties present written arguments until the beginning of next month.

For retailers who want to handle shops, this movement back and forth is confusing, especially if you have to plan weeks or even months in advance. "It's like a ping pong game. We try to understand what is valid and what is not. That makes it very difficult for retailers to plan ahead," said Gold.

imports and cost increases

While retailers remain in uncertainty, fewer containers get into the US ports. The 30 %inch to China was already too expensive for many retailers to bring more supplies to the United States, according to Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles. About 45 % of the harbor of the port comes from China.

Those who can afford the costs ship already manufactured products, but no new orders are awarded, Seroka continues. "The confusion about the trade guidelines and tariffs means that many wait and see how the situation develops," Seroka told CNBC on Thursday.

slow improvements in the port of La

The situation is slowly improving for the Port of La, but the numbers remain behind the expectations. In the first week of June, 96,000 large freight containers are expected to arrive, compared to 69,000 in the last week of May. 106,000 containers are expected by the second week of June. Although this represents an increase, it still means a loss of 9.4 % compared to the previous year, according to the port.

"We are far from where we should come to the first two weeks in June. We still have 10 canceled trips planned ship arrivals for June - half of them in the first week," said Seroka. "So we don't see the increase that some observers have predicted, but only a moderate increase to get back on track."

coming deadlines and possible price increases

It is not just the costs that companies have to deal with; You also see each other towards a time pressure. The 90-day break of the mutual tariffs runs on July 9th, and the break with China ends on August 12th.

"Ninety days of this breathing space are a short time in our business. It takes a short time to give up an order, have the goods made and to ship them here," said Seroka.

Nevertheless, some experts believe that there could be an increase, but the exact extent remains difficult to predict. "There will probably be no problem with empty shelves, but I think that additional costs may be passed on to consumers, because all this uncertainty has their price," said Daniel Hackett, partner at Hackett Associates, a company for Marit strategic and trade logistics.

A number of large retailers, including Walmart , Home Depot and Target , have already announced that it will increase the prices to cushion the effects of tariffs.

"You have supply chains and you are looking for predictability. They appreciate security," said Hackett. "It is precisely this uncertainty causes additional costs."