Trump tariffs threaten the trade war-China is ready to talk, but fights

Trump tariffs threaten the trade war-China is ready to talk, but fights

with the upcoming " Day of liberation " on the Donald Trump" opposite " Could announce to the United States trading partners, the question arises in Beijing whether this is the moment when the Commercial war actually escalated between the USA and China.

unclear signals from Washington

Inconsinent signals from the US government present Chinese officials with puzzles. The President of the United States often sued the huge trade deficit between the two largest economies in the world and during the election campaign tariffs from over 60% threatened to all Chinese goods that get to the USA. This could bring Beijing into a critical situation for the measures expected on Wednesday.

Trump signals possible concessions

In the past few days, Trump has indicated that he could reduce the tariffs to Chinese imports as part of a larger business through the sale of the TIKKOT social media platform. On Sunday, during a flight with Air Force One, he once again promised a deal via the platform before a to be concluded. Trump also praised the "good relationship" with Xi Jinping, the chairman of China, although he introduced strict controls about China's access to US technologies.

"We are at a crucial turning point," said Scott Kennedy, a senior consultant at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to reporters during a global business forum in Beijing. "We could see that these negotiations and the pressure lead to a withdrawal from these threats and the restoration of a more stable relationship, but the situation could also deteriorate significantly. We could experience high tariffs and a decline in investments. That would lead to a gradual decoupling of the two economies and cause a lot of suffering," he added. <

China's reaction to the threats of the USA

mutual threats and strategies

During a so-called "introductory meeting" between the highest sales representative of the USA, Jamieson Greer, and the Chinese Vice Prime Minister He Lifeng last week, "serious concerns" expressed "serious concerns" with regard to the existing US tariffs and the possible introduction of further taxes on April 2, as official reports reported. A separate summary of the conversation, which was published by a social media account associated with Chinese state television, was more clearly in its wording: "If the USA insisted on harming China's interests, China will be resolved."

china has already modestly, but quickly reacted to the two rounds of additional 10%tariffs, which Trump has previously imposed on Chinese imports into the United States while it sharpens its package of measures for the counter-reaction. China's Prime Minister Li Qiang recently signed a decree to strengthen the "Anti-Sanctions Act", which enables Beijing to be performed against foreign countries, "contain or suppress" China or discriminate against its companies and individuals.

China's strategic adaptation

Analysts argue that China acts better and uses other instruments to achieve talks at the management level with Trump to counteract an escalation. In addition, Beijing used the global uncertainties around Trump's "America First" policy to stage themselves as a champion of the global economy and to win over economical allies among the trade partners and companies in the United States from Asia to Europe.

"Dismissal and the break of supply chains do not harm all and lead to anything", explained Xi a group of global managers in Beijing last, which also included CEO of US companies such as Fedex and Qualcomm. "Ultimately, to block other ways will only hinder your own," continues XI.

The question of a trade agreement

Both sides ultimately have a strong interest in completing a deal. But the question is how to get to the negotiating table - and whether you can get together when you are there. During a recent visit to Beijing, the Trump confidant and US senator Steve Daines opposite Bloomberg News Must stop in the USA before trade negotiations can begin. This could be a challenging prerequisite, since China vehemently defended his efforts to stop the flow of chemicals related to Fentanyl, and accuse the United States to "swear up China and make it a scapegoat".

challenges and possible agreements

Trump, on the other hand, will "want to build a maximum pressure campaign before the other side will make the best offer that she can," said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington. In addition, China will not be willing to negotiate "topic for topic", but prefer an overall contract. "However, it must be a two -sided deal. It cannot be a one -sided concession", and in contrast to smaller economies, "China will not submit," said the expert.

Analysts have discussed a number of potential negotiation points that could be on the table if the conversations between the two sides get started. These range from agreements that China buys more US goods, reduces its exports or appeals to more US investments-which is made more difficult by the new US efforts to restrict Chinese investments in sectors considered sensitively. Chinese officials could also look for concessions in connection with US technology restrictions or a change in the US military aid system for Taiwan, the self-managed democracy that claims Beijing.

It remains uncertain whether a so -called "big deal" between the two is possible. "Donald Trump can theoretically consider the entire exercise to be successful if he raises high tariffs and does not come to any deal," said Tong, pointing out that the president could present himself as the one who has restructured the US Chinese economic relationship. At the same time, however, XI could also be perceived as the winner in his political environment if Beijing reacts gradually in his own way.

"This is the thing that both the US analysts and the white house do not fully understand," he added.

Reporting by CNNS Fred He, John Liu and Hassan Tayir.