China's biggest concern: Trump's rapprochement with Russia

China's biggest concern: Trump's rapprochement with Russia

US President Donald Trump's push to end the war in Ukraine appears aimed at making important concessions to Russia. This could leave Kiev and its European supporters on the sidelines as they face the prospect of peace without their involvement.

China's role in the Ukraine crisis

But it is not only Ukraine that is affected by this situation. In Beijing, too, the rapid turn of events is raising questions about how Trump's peace efforts will affect the carefully crafted partnership between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Relations between China and the Trump administration are also at stake.

Beijing as a neutral actor?

A few weeks ago, it seemed as if China could play a key role in Trump's Ukraine peacemaking efforts. The US President had repeatedly indicated that he was willing to work with Xi and use China's economic influence over Russia to end the conflict. This would be an important lever for Beijing to avert a trade war with the world's largest economy.

China's skeptical attitude

But now Beijing finds itself in an awkward position – neither loyal to Russia nor a powerful voice in the global conversation. So far, the rapid developments, which have surprised even Chinese officials, appear to be giving Beijing no leverage to take advantage of the situation.

The risks for Xi Jinping

The stakes are high for Xi Jinping, who has spent years building a strong personal relationship with his “old friend” Putin. His risk of not taking a stand against Russia's invasion of Ukraine could prove disastrous for China's standing in Europe and draw American allies in Asia closer to NATO.

China's support for peace negotiations

In recent days, Chinese officials have revised their support for the US-Russia "agreement" to initiate peace talks. “China supports all efforts that contribute to peace negotiations,” top diplomat Wang Yi told a UN Security Council meeting.

Observations on US Targets

Comments from U.S. officials may also have alerted Beijing to possible intrinsic U.S. objectives while working with Russia. US diplomat Marco Rubio cited the possibility of future “geopolitical and economic cooperation” between Washington and Moscow as one of the key areas discussed in Riyadh.

The relationship between Russia and China

Observers are skeptical that Washington can seriously damage the Russia-China relationship, especially given the deep consensus against the US-led order. But concerns that Trump, a leader who has revealed his admiration for Putin and Xi, could threaten the bond between the two nations are not unfounded.

Diplomatic challenges

The geopolitical landscape has been changing for a long time. Bitter disputes along their long shared border led to conflict between Soviet Russia and the young People's Republic of China in 1969. A diplomatic coup by President Richard Nixon and his adviser Henry Kissinger, who exploited these divisions to establish relations with Beijing, shifted the balance of power during the Cold War in the United States' favor.

China's future strategies

However, some experts see China's familiarity with Moscow as strong enough to survive the one-sided condemnation of political developments. "The China-Russia relationship is unique and based on strong institutional ties over the past decades," said Yu Bin, senior fellow at the Russian Studies Center of East China Normal University in Shanghai.

A seat at the negotiating table?

China is pushing to reposition itself as a responsible actor that can help normalize relations. If a deal is reached, Beijing could even send peacekeepers to Ukraine and play a role in rebuilding the country.

Ukraine's strategies for engaging China

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said it is important to involve China in efforts to pressure Putin and end the war. He noted that developments in international politics are moving quickly and that all relevant countries that can assume responsibility should be at the negotiating table.