Russia's military plans in Libya: Danger for NATO and Europe!

Russia's military plans in Libya: Danger for NATO and Europe!

Russia's possible regrouping to Libya could have far -reaching consequences for Moscow, Tripolis and beyond.

The future of Russia in Syria is on the brink! While the analysts agree that the loss of Syria for Russia will hardly have any material consequences, one thing is clear: the Kremlin does not want to give up its strategic presence in the Mediterranean and in Africa. This position was built over a whole decade and is of enormous importance for Moscow.

In the turmoil of the Syrian War, Russia provided decisive military and diplomatic support that Bashar al-Assad held in power. An important military base was built in Khmeimim and the Soviet navy base in Tartous significantly expanded - Russia's only access to a warm harbor. But with the takeover of power by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria, the future of these bases becomes increasingly unsure. Russia has already started to partially withdraw its troops.

Libya as a strategic alternative

The loss of these bases, which act as vital connections between Moscow, the Mediterranean and Africa, would be catastrophic for Russia. Therefore, Libya is considered the only practical alternative if Moscow decides to withdraw his forces from Syria. But what would a sudden increase in Russian military presence in such a unstable country as Libya? And what effects would this have on NATO, which is only a few nautical miles away?

The plans of the Kremlin to expand its presence in Africa about Syria and Libya have been a declared goal since 2017. Oleg Ignatov, a leading analyst of the International Crisis Group, emphasizes: "Russia sees Africa as one of the main slaughter fields in the competition of the great powers." The military contractor Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) has already established a military presence in many African countries.

The Africa Corps troops support governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, all of whom have broken off relationships with the west after recent states. In addition, the Africa Corps has proven to be crucial to stabilize the government of the Central African Republic and to support the military in Sudan after Moscow changed pages in this civil war.

a power game in Libya

Libya itself is in a power struggle that could be further destabilized to North Africa through a possible grouping of Russian troops from Syria. The country has found little stability since the 2011 revolution. It is managed by two governments, both of whom are considered illegitimate and refuse to give up power until national elections can take place.

In the east, the government of national stability (GNS) led by Khalifa Haftar is sitting, while in the West the internationally recognized government of the national agreement under Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah acts. The last choice planned for December 2021 failed at the last minute. But the UN have announced new negotiations to organize the first national election since the failed attempt in 2021.

The geopolitical maneuvers of Russia in Libya should not be underestimated. Haftar could prove to be a safe port for Russia, just a few hundred nautical miles away from the coasts of NATO. "This is not just a question of military base points. It's about creating pressure points on Europe's migration routes, energy supply and trade routes," warns Anas El Gomati from the Sadeq Institute in Tripolis.

The situation in Libya remains tense, and the coming months could be crucial for how the geopolitical forces in the region are being reorganized. The world looks forward to developments while Russia is planning its next steps!