Trump's tariffs change the global economy - here the evidence is
Trump's tariffs change the global economy - here the evidence is
Since President Donald Trump introduced the first new tariffs, many excited about how strongly they would influence the global economy.
falling exports from South Korea
This week one of the earliest signs was revealed - and it was not gratifying. The customs authority of South Korea reported that exports decreased by 5.2% in the first 20 days of April compared to the previous year. This individual data feature is considered an "important indicator", such as Min Joo Kang, senior economist at ING, in a message on Monday.
effects of Trump's tariffs
The export of exports took place after Trump introduced a custom of 25% to all aluminum, steel and auto imports. All other South Korean imports were also briefly affected by a 25%"mutual" customs before Trump postponed it until July. Instead, imports are now subject to an almost universal inch of 10%.data in detail
This is also reflected in the numbers: In the first month of April, car and steel sales fell 6.5% and 8.7% compared to the previous year. Overall, South Korea's exports fell to the United States by 14.3% compared to the previous year.
However, the semiconductor exports were a positive exception, which increased by 10.2% compared to April of the past year. Semiconductors are excluded from the US tariffs, but Trump has indicated that he wants to insert tariffs of up to 25% to this product.The complexity of the merchant data
At the moment, the South Korean data suggests that "the US tariffs make the global trade dynamics more complicated," said Kang. Nevertheless, the situation can often change from month to month, which is why it may be too early to draw hasty conclusions, Lee Branstetter, Professor of Economic Affairs and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University.
Branstetter, who previously worked as a senior economist for international trade and investment issues in ex-President Barack Obama's business shot, expressed the expectation that the upcoming trade data will also show a similar picture by other trading partners in the United States. However, these changes could show more slowly because it can take some time for new tariffs to reflect in the merchant data.
uncertain trade future
The chaos that has arisen by Trump's changeable customs policy increasingly makes it difficult to draw clear conclusions from the upcoming merchant data. It is possible that the data of some countries will show that exports to the United States have risen this month because companies tried to take advantage of the break during the "mutual" tariffs.
Another crucial factor is the general uncertainty that Trump's trade policy brings with it. The President recently claimed that he was conducting negotiations with other nations that could be completed within a few weeks. At the same time, however, he also threatened with new tariffs.
This uncertainty could lead to companies pausing their international orders entirely. That could mean that the exports of some countries decrease, explained Branstetter. A toy company with which CNN spoke this month indicated that no more from china , Customs continue to rise.
potential for change
The trade between South Korea and the USA could change if the talks between the two nations are successful. The South Korean finance minister Choi Sang-Mok and the Minister of Commerce Ahn Duk-Geun will come together on Thursday with US Finance Minister Scott Bessent and the US trade officer Jamieson Greer. The Trump administration has emphasized that it wants to prioritize trade agreements with allies such as South Korea.
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