Bashar al-Assad leaves Syria: Does the Putin's Ukraine strategy affect?

Bashar al-Assad leaves Syria: Does the Putin's Ukraine strategy affect?

The world now knows the colors of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad: the Russian tricolore. Assad's escape to Moscow, which followed the rapid collapse of his regime, means more than just the loss of a client state for the Kremlin. The case of the Assad House is a serious blow for President Vladimir Putin's efforts to appear in the Middle East and raises new questions about the fragility of his own regime.

reactions from the opposition

Putin's opponents in Russia are already pleased. The prominent Russian opposition activist Ilya Yashin said on X: "Less one dictator and ally of Putin". He posted a photo of a burning Assad banner. The former Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA Commented: "Putin has sacrificed Assad to extend his war in Ukraine. Resources are scarce and it is not as strong as he specifies. ”

historical parallels

for observers of Putin's war against Ukraine accuses Assads of striking historical parallels. Assad is part of the list of fled state supervisors, similar to the former Ukrainian president Wiktor" Janukowytsch , who fled to Russia in 2014, after weeks of street protests resulted in bloody repression. In Assad's formerly magnificent presidential palace in Damascus, Syrians are now moving around, similar to how it was possible to visit Ukrainians, to visit the site of Mezhyhirya, the magnificent property of Janukowytsch.

The military consequences

The collapse of Assad's regime is a very real military loss for Putin. Videos show the fall of an Assad monument in Tartus, where Russia has had a naval base since the Cold War. The air base in Hmeimim, in the province of Latakia, is another base for Russia's power projection in the Middle East. With a Visit to hmeimim 2017 promised that these two bases" continue to operate in a long way and warned: "If the terrorists - i.e. the opponents - again - Lift heads, we will have any unexpected blows so far. ”

Putin's role on the global stage

When Putin intervened almost a decade ago in Syria by sending his Air Force and Russian mercenaries to support Assad's inferior powers, he received time and influence. He achieved more control over the Syrian territory and proved to be an indispensable player in regional and global politics. The support for Assad, which Putin had guaranteed a decade ago, now looks empty and meaningless.

future prospects and negotiation dynamics

Assad's dismissal could strengthen Putin's position in negotiations on the end of the Ukraine War. Tatiana Stanovaya, a close observer Putin, expressed on x that Assad's defeat could harden in the Ukraine conflict. "Putin could provide additional conditions and will not willingly be able to negotiate.

The fainting to distance itself from Assad could further harden Putin's position. In view of war crimes and general geopolitical isolation, the future will remain challenging for the Kremlin.