Russia increasingly control over Ukraine, Trump enables Putin 50 days

Russia increasingly control over Ukraine, Trump enables Putin 50 days

The 50-day break of US President Donald Trump before possible secondary sanctions against Russia gives the Kremlin the opportunity to use the gradual profits of the past few weeks. Analysts warn that this increasingly endangered the Ukrainian key positions in the east.

Russian offensive approaches

It is believed that Russia is only removed from days or weeks from starting a more intensive summer offensive, possibly using 160,000 troops that, according to Ukrainian civil servants, are gathered on the front. In the past two weeks, however, Russia has made small but decisive progress that enable its armed forces to cut the Ukrainian troops in three key cities - Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka and Kupiansk - on the Eastern Front.

reactions of the Kremlin

The Kremlin seems unimpressed by the new Ultimatum Trump. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrow noticed on Tuesday: "Fifty days - that used to be 24 hours; that used to be 100 days; we went through everything." Analysts commented that the new time frame Putin will benefit from his goals.

Putin's strategy

Keir Giles from Chatham House wrote on Tuesday that the period of 50 days of Russia gave enough time to develop its own alternative plan and to outsmart Washington diplomatically. "Trump extends his fictional deadlines for Putin, which extends Ukraine's suffering for the same arbitrary period," he added.

intensification of military actions

John Lough, head of foreign policy in the New Eurasian Strategies Center, believed that the summer offensive has probably been going on for several months. "The Russians undoubtedly intensify their efforts, both on the ground and in the air," he said. The latest air strikes in Ukrainian cities could be due to slow progress on the front lines, with the aim of "demoralizing the population and weakening their fighting spirit".

critical location in key regions

The gradual progress in Russia in the vicinity of these three cities are associated with considerable costs. A mapping of the front line by Deepstate, a Ukrainian surveillance service, as well as reports from the region confirm Russian progress in trying to obtain all three cities. In the last 72 hours, Russian troops have moved closer to Rodynske, an important settlement northeast of Pokrovsk, which has been besieged by Moscow for months.

Defense strategies of Ukraine

A Ukrainian commander, who is known as the nickname Musician and heads a drone unit in the 38th marine brigade, said that the Russian offensive has been going on for some time. "We are not yet climax, but they have made progress for some time and do it quite successfully," he said. The defense of Rodyynske is crucial, since the probability of a critical situation is growing, the area should get into hostile hands. "It is a logical move by the enemy," added Musician.

challenges

Without urgently needed reinforcements, there is a risk of repeating the encirclement and withdrawals, such as those could be observed around the city of Avdiivka in early 2024. Ukrainian troops had been standing in Avdiivka for months until they no longer had enough staff and resources to keep control. The loss of this city symbolized both Kiev stamina and Moscow tireless willingness to accept high losses to gain territory.

consequences of Russia's progress

The Ukrainian military blogger Bohdan Miroshnikov warned that the take of Rodynske "would be in the entire left flank" around Pokrovsk would complete. "If things go on like this, we have few options ... either our garrison will be forced to soak back under the threat of the ink area, or there will be bitter fights in a semi-division with unclear perspectives," he wrote. The Russian military announced that the goal was to drop Pokrovsk like Avdiivka and Bakhmut beforehand.

Current developments in Kostyantynivka

The mapping of deepstate also shows progress towards Kostyantynivka, another important hub in the east that Russia has quickly reached from the southeast and southwestern direction in the past two weeks. Ukrainian bloggers and soldiers report on persistent attacks on this city, which was not part of Putin's original territorial destinations. "The daily fights mean that 70-90 % of enemy staff and equipment are destroyed, but the enemy is moving forward," says a Ukrainian blogger.

internal challenges of Ukraine

reports of misleading information from Ukrainian commanders to their superiors hinder the defense efforts, which, according to Deepstate, could have catastrophic consequences. "A large part of the feed success is the formation of lies in the reports from the field, which make a realistic assessment of the situation and an appropriate response to changes from above," warned the service.

The strategic importance of Kupiansk

Russian progress in the north of Kupiansk is another challenge for the often over -tented Ukrainian forces. The Russian advance since June 23 from Holubivka has meant that they now have control over an important access road north of Kupiansk. Kupiansk is one of the capitals east of Charkiw, the second largest city in Ukraine, and its control secures the city with an estimated one million inhabitants.

reports from Kiev by Svitlana Vlasova and from London by Nick Paton Walsh and Lauren Kent.