Israel's Gaza deal shows conflicts that endanger the ceasefire

Israel's Gaza deal shows conflicts that endanger the ceasefire

The approval of the ceasefire by Israel should not hide the fact that there are profound tensions in Israeli politics that could endanger the longevity of the agreement.

Details of the ceasefire

The ceasefire agreed in Qatar should last 42 days. During this period, 33 hostages are expected to be released, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. In addition, a gradual deduction of the Israeli military from urban centers in the Gaza Strip and an increase in humanitarian aid is planned.

no permanent solution

political tensions in Israel

It could depend on the moods of Israeli politics whether these agreements are actually implemented. The deal, which Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu got involved, is remarkable to the proposal against which he was standing for almost a year. "We did not commit to any of the unfulfilled demands of Hamas," said Netanyahu in February of last year.

The position of Hamas and the reaction of the government

Although Hamas is undeniably weakened, Israel has not reached the “full Victory” that Netanyahu had promised for a long time. "We estimate that Hamas recruited almost as many new fighters as she lost," said US Secretary of State Antony Flasch this week.

reactions in the government

Netanyahus Extreme allies in the government are confused about his sudden change of course. "I love Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and will make sure that he will remain prime minister," said Ittamar Ben Gvir, the Minister of National Security, in a statement. "But I will leave (the government) because the signed agreement is catastrophic."

The consequences of a withdrawal

Ben Gvir has announced that his party "Jewish power" will escape from the government coalition when the ceasefire and the hostage deal come into force. However, the government could not bring down its resignation alone. However, if he is accompanied by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, this could destabilize the coalition of Netanyahu.

The role of the opposition

Although Smotrich's resignation would break the coalition, the government of Netanyahu could be saved by its rival Yair Lapid, the opposition leader of the Yesh Atid Party, who offered his support in the legislative. That would give Lapid the opportunity to bring the government to a breakdown at any time and to initiate new elections - a threat that Netanyahu wants to escape.

exact procedure and risks

It is unclear whether Netanyahu Smotrich has given any promise to secure his support - the solution to today's crisis seems more important than that of tomorrow. He is obviously trying to give in because he met Smotrich in the hours before the ceasefire in Qatar's announcement. President Biden said on Wednesday: "The plan stipulates that if the negotiations last longer than six weeks, the armistice will continue as long as the negotiations will continue." However, if Israel begins with bombing on the 43rd day, the agreement would be obsolete.

The effects of publicity communication

In the hours after the Agreement's announcement by the Catar Prime Minister, Netanyah's office sent a flood of press releases in which Hamas was accused of breaking. The explanations made it clear that Netanyahu was under pressure to stay hard. Whether these last obstacles were real remains questionable - Hamas denies this. But the public "tapping of the shoulders" in favor of Netanyahus "Fixed attitude" was certainly designed to appease the domestic, right -wing audience.

The influence of international politics

Another factor that may have led to Netanyah's surrender compared to this first ceasefire is the upcoming American President Donald Trump. His self -styled image as the American President, who ends foreign wars, will certainly put enormous pressure on Netanyahu, to stick to the agreement that Trump has recognized and calls "Epic".

Netanyahu was able to ignore President Joe Biden's offers because he was confident that he had an even more reliable ally at his side with Trump. He no longer has this option.