India and Pakistan proclaim victory after the conflict on Wednesday
India and Pakistan proclaim victory after the conflict on Wednesday
A tense silence led over India and Pakistan when millions of people woke up on Thursday: No further rockets were fired, the schools in most regions had reopened, and both sides seemed to claim victory.
a radical change in events
That was a striking difference to the day before, on which the obviously noticeable panic shook both countries after new delhi targeted Military attacks explained to his neighboring, while Islamabad said that he had shot down the fighter jets of his rival.
"just blows" was a comment of one of the leading English newspapers in India, which praised the country's "sharp" and "determined" reaction to the massacre of 26 people in the cashmere who was committed by India, which was committed by militant. A headline in The Indian Express spoke a similar language: "Justice executed" was on the front page.
Pakistani reaction and forecast
The Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reacted more aggressively. He promised to "avenge" the death of 31 people who were killed in the Indian attacks, but nevertheless explained a triumph about the alleged interception of Indian aircraft.
"It only took a few hours until the enemy fell on his knees," he said in a speech to the nation at night.
India claims that "terrorist infrastructure" of two Islamist groups-Lashkar-E-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed-attacked that are held responsible for some of the fatal attacks on the country. The attacks on Wednesday did not target military infrastructure and, according to Neu-Delhi, killed no civilians, which could possibly give India and Pakistan the chance to avoid a comprehensive war.
The geopolitical situation
A place that attacked India was deep in the province of Punjab in Pakistan, the deepest attack in the undisputed area of Pakistan since the great war of the two countries in 1971. Several other places in Punjab-the power center of the military establishment and seat of the Sharif government-were also attacked, including a mosque, which in the Muslim majority nation Angered.
Analysis show that the further procedure mainly depends on Islamabad. "All eyes are on Pakistan," said Washington South Asia Analyst Michael Kugelman. "If it decides to maintain his face and claim a victory-perhaps by pointing out the shooting of Indian jets (which New Delhi has not confirmed)-and declares the incident as ended, a way out could be in sight."
risks of a larger conflict
Most analysts agree that the two nuclear neighbors can not afford any further war. India and Pakistan have already waged three wars about cashmere, a controversial area that completely claim both countries and each check part. Another conflict could have catastrophic consequences.
Pakistan, which was founded seven decades ago when the former British India was diverted and currently houses 230 million people, sees increasing challenges towards political instability to an alarming militant insurgence, climate disasters and economic disorder. In contrast, India appears in a stronger position, with a military that is superior in every conventional conflict, and an economy that is more than ten times as large as the Pakistans. Nevertheless, the conflict should also have escalated, said Tanvi Madan, Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy program of Brookings Institution.
de -escalation or upcoming conflicts?
Analysts report signs that both countries are seriously interested in a de -escalation. But any further retaliation on both sides could quickly turn into a comprehensive conflict. Both sides, for example, continued to carry battles along the de facto border in Kashmir.
India quickly became in the process of emphasizing that his reaction to the massacre of April 22 was "specifically, moderate and not escalating" and made it clear that they were answered in response to the massacre of tourists. High-ranking civil servants in Neu-Delhi contacted important counterparts in the United States, in the Middle East and Russia to probably exert international pressure on Pakistan to avoid escalation, said Nisha Biswal, Senior Advisor at The Asia Group.
As a sign of a return to normality after the attacks, Pakistan announced that it would reopen his airspace and schools across the country, and it seemed as if it were a normal business on the streets of the capital Islamabad.
on Thursday morning.The leaders Pakistan praised a victory of the country's air force and claimed that five Indian fighter jets were shot down during a one -hour battle over a distance of more than 160 kilometers (100 miles). The Indian leaders hardly reacted to these claims and did not recognize any loss of aircraft. The Pakistanis have not yet presented any evidence that they have shot down fighter jets, but a source of the French Ministry of Defense said that at least one of India's newer and most advanced combat aircraft-a French Rafale Jet-was lost in battle.
future prospects and international reactions
If there have actually been losses for India, Pakistan could "even if the circumstances are unclear", said Milan Vaishnav, Senior Fellow and Director of the South Asia Program of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "This would enable Pakistan to say that it had imposed costs for Indian military goals."
But during the turmoil of war, the mighty Pakistani army coilizer Asim Munir had already sworn to react to any aggression of India. Munir, who is known for his hard attitude towards the Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Modi, has the reputation of being more assertive than his predecessor Qamar Javed Bajwa.
In the meantime, there are many votes within Modis Hindu-nationalist party that have been advocating Pakistan for a decisive blow for years. Kugelman, the South Asia Analyst, noticed that the United States, which in the past has often intervened in these crises, could try to reduce tensions, but it is unclear how much attention the Trump administration is willing to devote."China called for de-escalation, but the tense relationships with India rule out it as possible intermediaries. The best candidates for mediation are the Arabic Gulf States, especially Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates," he added, given their close relationships with both nations.
Qatar was quickly ready to demand diplomacy in the hours after the attacks on Wednesday. While most analysts think that there is a way out for both nations, they agree that the situation remains fluid and tense. "This crisis is as unpredictable as it is dangerous - a worrying combination," added Kugelman.
In this report, Sophia Saifi, Azaz Syed, Aishwarya s iyer, Esha Mitra and Vedika Sud from CNN contributed.