The crucial surveys: Who leads in the winter election campaign 2025?

In the run -up to the Bundestag election, which is due to take place in 2025, the election campaign is becoming increasingly intensive. A current survey by the ZDF Politbarometer shows that candidates Robert Habeck (Greens) and Friedrich Merz (CDU) are each with 27% of the votes. While Habeck added two points, Merz lost two percent. Olaf Scholz (SPD) follows with 14% and Alice Weidel (AfD) with 15%, whereby Scholz also gave two percentage points.

In the direct choice between Scholz and Merz, Merz is still in front of Scholz with 44%, which falls to 41%. In comparison between Merz and Habeck, Merz was able to achieve 44%, which corresponds to a decline of four points, while Habeck increased by two points to 41%. The sympathy values of the politicians also show interesting trends. Boris Pistorius has 1.7 (formerly 2.0), Hendrik Wüst remains stable at 0.8, while Markus Söder is -0.3 and Robert Habeck are -0.5. Merz has -0.6, while Scholz have clear minus points with -1.0 and Christian Lindner with -1.6. Weidel also cuts negatively with -2.4.

projections and voice behavior

In the election forecast for the Bundestag election, there are clear trends: The SPD comes to 14% (-1), the CDU/CSU to 30% (-1), the Greens to 15% (+1), the FDP to 4% (+1), the AfD to 21% (+2) and the left and the BSW each record 4% (unchanged). 67% of those surveyed consider to choose other parties. With regard to possible coalitions, Markus Söder emphasizes that joint government formation is excluded with the Greens, while 70% of the respondents doubt his enforcement capacity within the Union. In addition, 67% of the respondents reject a government participation of the AfD, while 23% are for it.

The survey, carried out by the Mannheim research group elections between 7 and 9 January 2025, interviewed 1,433 persons entitled to vote. At +/- three percentage points, the error range is 40% and +/- two percentage points at 10%. This shows that the political preferences of voters are in the flow. Another ZDF polite barometer will be released on January 24, 2025, such as Lokalklick.eu reported.

In addition, the ZDF confirms that CDU and CSU are clearly in front of AfD, SPD and Greens in voters, while the FDP and left -wing will probably not move into the Bundestag. 53% of the respondents are unsure which party will win the election, which underlines the uncertainty of the current political situation. The distance between the CDU/CSU and the SPD is 16 points, which further complicates the position of the SPD. The traffic light parties have lost support and, according to the survey, have no majority in the Bundestag. An important result is that Olaf Scholz is increasingly rated, which further increases the pressure on the SPD, such as zdf.de