Tusk asks a question of trust: Will Poland government fail?

Tusk asks a question of trust: Will Poland government fail?

Wien, Österreich - Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk has announced today to ask the question of trust in parliament. This is done against the background of the recent election victory of the PIS-related Karol Nawrocki as President, who is considered the opponent of the liberal coalition around Tusk. In a TV address, Tusk emphasized the need for "unity and courage" in the new political balance. The upcoming vote is intended to show that his government remains able to act, despite the challenges of an opposition in the presidential office. Observers already warn of a political blockade because Nawrocki has the opportunity to stop laws with a veto and the coalition of Tusk does not have the necessary 60 percent majority to avoid these vetos. This could endanger the planned cancellation of the controversial judicial reform, which in turn could affect EU aids. In the past, the EU Commission had already initiated the procedure in accordance with Article 7 and frozen funds because of the judicial policy.

In the context of this political crisis, analyst Agnieszka Lada-Konefal warns of a political standstill and possible new elections, while Tusk determines that the cooperation with Nawrocki only designs on necessary points. While Tusk's coalition is 248 of 460 seats in parliament, the tension between him and Nawrocki increases. This constellation could prove to be a challenge for the new political projects.

a sensational listening scandal

The scandal has beaten political waves and Tusk has to be accountable in the Warsaw Parliament. There are suspicions that a "businessman" has transmitted the recordings with the "Patriot" name, with Russian or American intelligence agencies being considered as possible backers. Marek Falenta, the main shareholder of the “Kohlelager” company, was arrested in connection with the scandal, and two suspects were already recorded in this context.

political classification and government challenges

The political landscape in Poland has been largely shaped by the right-wing PIS party in recent years, which ruled from 2015 to 2023. In the last election in October 2023, the PIS received around 35% of the votes, but did not find a coalition partner, while the opposition citizen coalition under Tusk received almost 31% and formed a coalition with the third path and Lewica. This has taken the lead since December 2023. Tusk is now calling for a reform program to push back the national conservative policy of the PIS.

The new government is under pressure to effectively manage both the domestic policy crisis as well as in security issues, especially with regard to Ukraine, a clear course. The conflict between the PIS and the new government could further exacerbate the budget law, which significantly reinforces the political challenges for Tusk.

Overall, the current Situation in Poland shows that the political cards have been re-mixed, while the commitments of the new government indicate a return to a stronger constitutional state and a pro-European political information.