Traffic light coalition at a crossroads: 100 days, but polls are plummeting!

Traffic light coalition at a crossroads: 100 days, but polls are plummeting!

The traffic light coalition made up of ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS will soon celebrate its first anniversary after being in office for almost 100 days. This phase traditionally marks the end of the grace period for new governments. But the survey results show that the traffic light parties are falling short of expectations. The current survey results from a Lazarsfeld survey in which 2,000 people took part are sobering: The ÖVP achieved 20 percent and has therefore lost 6.3 percentage points compared to the election results in September 2024. The SPÖ achieved only a minimal advantage at 21 percent, but remained below its previous result of 21.1 percent.

The NEOS recorded 9 percent, which is very close to their election result of 9.1 percent, after a high of 12 percent before the government was formed. With 10 percent, the Greens are above their result from September 2024. In contrast, the FPÖ leads the polls by a significant margin and would clearly win a National Council election with 34 percent, with the gap to the second-placed SPÖ being 13 percentage points. In the National Council election, the traffic light coalition had 110 seats; Now 13 mandates have been lost, and the current number of mandates for the traffic light is 97, which is five more than necessary to form a government.

Current election trend

In addition to the poll numbers for the traffic light coalition, the current election trends show a clear lead for the FPÖ with 33.7 percent, followed by the ÖVP with 20.9 percent and the SPÖ with 20.8 percent. The NEOS achieved 10.1 percent, while the Greens achieved 9.4 percent. Smaller parties like the KPÖ are at 3.2 percent and other parties together reach 1.9 percent. It should also be noted that the current trend is that the government parties together achieve 54.2 percent of the vote;

In order to have significant political influence, 92 of 183 MPs are needed for a majority to form a government. These figures show that there is also the possibility of forming coalitions to ensure a stable government.

Political landscape and future perspectives

The political landscape in Austria is highly polarized. The current values ​​illustrate the shift in power towards right-wing and populist parties, while traditional parties are struggling with declining votes. The next National Council election is expected to take place in 2029. A look at the distribution of the parties shows that 108 MPs are right-wing, while only 57 MPs come from the left-wing spectrum.

The economic orientations of the parties vary and, according to a graphic from the Chapel Hill Expert Survey 2019, are also shaped by the lifestyles of voters. This study looks at political orientation and shows that in the eyes of voters, the state is seen both as an active instrument through taxes and regulation and can act as a moral authority.

As the traffic light coalition prepares to celebrate its first major anniversary in the coming days, it remains to be seen what measures it will take to improve its poll numbers and ensure the stability of its government. The challenges are clear, and citizens are watching developments with great attention.