Trump's new Russia policy changes the situation in Ukraine
Trump's new Russia policy changes the situation in Ukraine
Brett McGurk is a global safety analyst at CNN and served under President George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden in high -ranking national security positions.
The dramatic change of policy of Trump towards Ukraine
To understand the dramatic turn in the Ukraine policy of President Donald Trump, two scenes in the Oval Office, which are months apart, are important. On February 28, Trump complained to the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj in front of the international media and explained that he had “no cards” and effectively had no choice but to ask for peace with Russia, largely on the conditions of Russia. Shortly after this meeting, the United States announced a temporary break of all military and secret service support for Ukraine.
a new approach in diplomacy
On July 14th, Trump met NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and announced significant new aids for Selenskyj, including billions of dollars for military equipment, including advanced air defense systems, and new sanctions against Russia, which should come into force in 50 days if President Vladimir Putin continues the war. These scenes mark a chapter ineffective American diplomacy and the beginning of a new, more promising phase: a diplomacy based on the necessary pressure to stop a war that Putin apparently wants to continue unlimited.
dance with the bear
Theodore Roosevelt once said: "Diplomacy is completely useless if there is no power behind it." This applies in particular to diplomacy with Russia. During my time as an envoy for President Obama and Trump, I had some difficulties with this challenge. As an envoy representative who headed the campaign against the Islamic state in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), it was my job to conduct a diplomatic channel with Russia in terms of support for the Assad regime in Syria. The aim was to keep the Russian armed forces away from our away while we were doing against ISIS. The Russians wanted Syria for themselves and often tried to limit our scope for maneuver.
diplomatic inertia
So how did we get here? As a candidate, Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine on the “first day” of his presidency. Many of his advisors believed that the Russian invasion in Ukraine was somehow provoked by the United States or by the Ukraine integration press in Europe. This misunderstanding of the origins of the conflict - in reality Putin started an unprofitable invasion with the aim of conquering all of Ukraine - led to a diplomatic strategy that aimed at Putin's benevolence and at the same time reduced support for Ukraine.
turning point of diplomacy
The new approach: under pressure diplomacy
This new approach is developing, but already has three essential components:
- military support for Ukraine: in a meeting with Rutte, Trump explained a new US policy to sell highly developed military systems directly to NATO partners, which then pass it on to Ukraine. This is the end of an important supply gap in Ukraine, while Trump is at the same time strengthening its own position.
- coordination with allies: Trump recently took part in a successful NATO summit, in which the allies agreed to increase the defense budget to 5 percent of national GDP. This will strengthen the military presence towards Russia and also give the various opinions within Europe.
- threats of new sanctions: Ukraine enjoys unique support in Washington. A law on Russia sanctions in the Senate is waiting for the consent of the White House and can be used to significantly increase the pressure on Moscow.
FAZIT
Yesterday,Trump announced a dramatic change of policy to Ukraine, which opened a new chapter for American diplomacy and the ongoing efforts to end Russia's war. It was the right decision that deserves bilateral support to maintain the pressure on Moscow. The most important message for Putin is that the United States will not be given in and that the longer the war lasts.
Because even in Ukraine, the US America is on the political stage together with its allies as the largest bear.
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