Xi Jinping as guest of honor in Moscow before the Victory Day parade

Xi Jinping as guest of honor in Moscow before the Victory Day parade

Hong Kong - As Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares for the carefully orchestrated military parade event on May 9, "Victory Day," it is clear that Xi Jinping, the Chinese head of state, is at the top of the list of guests of honor. Xi will arrive in Moscow on Wednesday to deepen "mutual trust" during a four-day state visit and take part in activities commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Allied victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

Strengthening the alliance between China and Russia

Xi's participation in this celebration shows strong unity between the two autocratic leaders and their countries. This comes at a moment when US President Donald Trump's "America First" diplomacy has shaken global alliances and reshaped relations between Washington and both powers. Putin referred to Xi as his in his remarks last month “Chief Guest”.

Other leaders who will take part in the celebrations include Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Vietnam's President To Lam and Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko. A contingent of China's People's Liberation Army Guard of Honor will also take part in the parade, which takes place in the shadow of Putin's attack on Ukraine.

Putin's ceasefire offer and Ukraine's response

To commemorate the event, Putin proposed a three-way ceasefire with Kiev - a decision that some analysts see as an attempt to privately display Russia's military strength before international dignitaries. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky rejected this suggestion and described it as “theatrical performance”. He renewed his support for an earlier U.S. offer of a 30-day ceasefire.

Conflict and strategic partnerships

In recent months, Ukrainian dignitaries have warned visiting guests that Kiev "cannot be responsible for what is happening on the territory of the Russian Federation" given the ongoing conflict, which the Kremlin later interpreted as a threat. Ukraine has carried out drone strikes on Moscow several times over the course of the war, including in recent days - leading to temporary closures of airports in the capital. The largest attack on the Russian capital in March killed three people.

Ukraine says its attacks are aimed at destroying infrastructure crucial to Moscow's war effort and come in response to Russia's ongoing attacks on Ukrainian territory, including residential areas and energy infrastructure.

Celebrations and geopolitical reality

“Victory Day” on May 9 is one of Russia’s largest celebrations, marking Nazi Germany’s surrender to the Soviet Union in 1945. This day has become increasingly important under Putin, who falsely claims that his war in Ukraine is “denazification.” That was in recent years Range of military hardware declining as Russian tanks are instead mobilized on the front lines of the war.

Europe celebrates its VE Day a day earlier, marking Germany's surrender on all fronts.

Changes in the geopolitical context

This is Xi Jinping's third visit to Russia since Putin began his war more than three years ago, but much has changed since his last visit just over six months ago. China and the USA are now in one escalated trade war, which could significantly impact both economies. Beijing therefore feels the need to strengthen its friendships - and trade ties - with other nations, including Russia.

Moscow, on the other hand, has one under Trump comprehensively more sympathetic America compared to his predecessor, but has kept a close eye on the recent warming relations between Washington and Kiev as the US president appears to be losing patience with Putin.

“There are now ... more incentives for China and Russia to present a solid picture of their alignment,” says Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington.

Strengthening bilateral relations

On this trip, Xi will seek to ensure China's continued access to Russia's natural resources and markets, as the country now faces 145% tariffs on most exports to the US and has imposed high self-imposed retaliatory tariffs. “Given the political situation in the US, China needs Russia in many aspects – both in trade and in energy resources,” explains Tamás Matura, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

But analysts say the same trade disputes could also create a possible opening for China to repair ties with Europe, something Xi will be aware of given the diplomacy ahead.

In summary, both Xi and Putin benefit from a strong alliance while together supporting the image of a stable and cooperative international framework.