Last boats from China arrived without high tariffs - prices rise soon

Last boats from China arrived without high tariffs - prices rise soon

Some of the last cargo ships that transport Chinese goods without high tariffs are currently being created in US ports. But that will change from next week.

changes in the imports of import

were on ships from China that were invited after April 9, subject to the customs of 145 %imposed by President Donald Trump last month. These goods will arrive from next week, but fewer ships will be at sea and they will transport less freight. For many importers, the business with China has become too expensive.

important trading partner

China remains one of the most important trading partners in the United States. Many consumer goods, from clothing to shoes to electronics and microprocessors, come from this country and are essential for the operation of many devices.

Heavy decisions for companies

companies are faced with a difficult decision: Should you continue to sell products from China at more than twice as high prices or delete these products entirely from your range? For consumers, this could mean that some products are difficult to find or prohibitv is expensive.

"Next week we start to see the arrivals after the customs announcement of April 2," said Gene Seroka, managing director of the port of Los Angeles, where almost half of the business comes from China. "The freight that arrives in Los Angeles will decrease by 35 % compared to the previous year."

decline in imports

The imports to the United States are expected to decrease by at least 20 % compared to the previous year in the second half of 2025, as the National Retail Federation predicts. The decline in imports from China will be even more drastic: JP Morgan expects a decrease of 75 % to 80 %.

"If this cannot be easily replaced by imports from other countries, a collapse of this size would not only increase prices greatly, but also significantly disrupt the supply chains," explained JP Morgan in his report.

consequences for consumers

That means less work, higher prices on the shelves and less selection for consumers. Seroka says the countdown has already started. "Many large retailers have informed us that they currently have an inventory of around six to eight weeks," said Seroka. "Both American manufacturers and consumers will face difficult decisions in the coming weeks and months if politics does not change."

Stilling ships and empty ports

At the port of Shanghai in China, the largest cargo ships are idle. Redereies are increasingly using smaller ships to transport the freight because the demand subsides. Nevertheless, the journeys of China to the United States in April fell by 60 %, such as Flexport, a logistics and freight forwarder.

"The companies that run the ships canceled many trips. They said: 'We don't go with a half -full ship. We leave it here," said Ryan Peterson, CEO from Flexport. "There are many ships that are waiting for the coast of China and hope for a deal."

changes in shipping behavior

In March, the port of New York and New Jersey became the most busy port in the country when retailers were loading their freight in advance before the tariffs came into force. But this month a decline in volume is expected, according to the port.

more expensive prices on the shelves

As soon as the freight reaches the US ports, it doesn't take long for the goods to be available in the shops. And if the current inventory is exhausted, more expensive, customary articles will get on the shelves.

"There are many concerns. Retailers are currently in the process of planning their orders for the beginning of school and Christmas and how and when they want to give them up," said Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Liefer and Customs Policy of the National Retail Federation.

The challenges for small retailers

While larger retailers can keep more inventory, smaller companies do not have this luxury. "Especially for small retailers who cannot absorb the effects of tariffs, it is a challenge to find out which next steps they should take," added gold.

The Americans rely on thousands of products from China, everything from flat screen TVs to strollers. US companies import more toys, clothes and shoes from China than from any other country, according to the US International Trade Commission.

expected price increases

A current survey by Gartner, a company research company, shows that 45 % of managers in the supply chain expect to pass on the higher costs by tariffs to their customers.

Seroka does not see any empty shelves - but it recognizes less choice. "If you are looking for a certain type of trousers, you may find a lot of different pants, but not the way you want. And the way you want will be more expensive," said Seroka.

Peterson from Flexport is less optimistic. "If this continues for a few more weeks, the retailers will sell their stock and you will experience bottlenecks and empty shelves by summer," he said.

less freight means less work

With less expected cargo ships in US ports, the local economy will suffer immediately, says Seroka. The trade in China makes 45 % of the portfolio of the port of Los Angeles, which is the largest proportion of a US port. Without this volume, the demand for workers will decrease.

"I don't see any mass layoffs in the port, but I notice that a truck driver who today transports four or five containers could only transport two or three after next week," said Seroka. "And the port worker who works overtime and double layers will probably work less than a full working week because fewer containers arrive. The same applies to warehouse workers."

appeal to the government

The American Trucking Associations has asked President Trump to make agreements with important trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and China, to protect jobs in transportation.

"The longer the tariffs exist, the greater the pain for the truck drivers and for families and companies that we look after," said Chris Spear, President and CEO of American Trucking Associations last month. "Customs not only reduce border traffic, but also increase operating costs. The costs for a new truck could increase by up to $ 35,000, which makes up for an annual tax of $ 2 billion and makes new devices unaffordable for small transport companies."

slow adjustments in the supply chain

Since the supply chain crisis during the pandemic, retailers have tried to move China to Vietnam and other Asian countries with manufacturing capacities. But Gold realizes that imports from these other countries are not sufficient to compensate for the decline in the freight from China.

"It takes time to build up months if not years to build these new relationships. To ensure that the new suppliers have the capacities, qualified workforce and the necessary infrastructure. All the test requirements that have to be met in the USA, especially for children's products," says Gold. "This is nothing that can happen overnight."