Trump's 50-day change of course to Ukraine: important, but not for Putin
Trump's 50-day change of course to Ukraine: important, but not for Putin
New developments on Tuesday underpin the idea that President Donald Trump undertook his view of the UkraineKreieg significantly changed has. However, his short -sighted time specifications and the lack of specific plans, as he wants to help Ukraine, are characteristic of his leadership and mean that the most important factor that prevents an end to the conflict remains unchanged. There is little reason to believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin will change his own calculations to a war, which he sees as a historical need and which could be politically existential for him.
changes in the Ukraine conflict
Nevertheless, some things have undoubtedly changed.
The worst scenarios for the first six months of Trump's second term in terms of the situation in Ukraine have not occurred. This assessment excludes the Ukrainian civilians who have been killed in Russia's latest fatal escalation of drone and rocket attacks, including apartment blocks.
Yes Trump has not subordinated and his former friend Putin. He has not abandoned Europe while Russia is becoming increasingly expansive - in the middle of the worst country war on the continent since World War II. Trump seems to be more soned to the NATO countries than in previous years.
Ukrainian diplomacy in the upswing
Ukraine is faced with the possibility of losing territory through a Russian summer offensive and suffering additional horrors that civilians have to endure. But it is diplomatically under the Trump administration in a cheaper position than it was ever hoping when President Wolodymyr Selenskyj received a sharp complaint in the Oval Office in February. This means that the hopes of survival as an independent, sovereign state have increased.
Trump's hostility to Kiev and his concerns to pump US aids into a trench war, in which a lot are in the fire, could largely result from his disappointment about Putin's devaluation of his peace plans, which were formulated in favor of the Kremlin.
, however, he has at least cleared up a few misunderstandings that made him believe that he could bring Putin to his will with his personality. And by promising Ukraine Patriot rockets-which Trump said on Tuesday, "already sent"-and is open to a new sanction strut against Russia in the congress, he has given the American peace process more weight.
Revaluation of expectations
Trump's change of course will allow all sides to adapt to new realities. Although, notes Matthew Chance , Trumps 50-tage period for Moskau, Bidding peace, offering a seven -week window for the cynics in Moscow to make as many profits as possible by bringing fire and death through Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Trump gave himself time to decide where he wants to go to Ukraine. The NATO countries can increase their own benefits for Trump after a successful Allianz summit.
Selenskyj can try to create more benevolence at Trump to shape his approach for future peace contracts - although his experience in the Oval Office should be a warning not to urge the president too much.
How long will Trump's new view stop?
It would be unclear to assume that Trump's estrangement of Putin is permanent. Most of the disappointment, his anger seems to have emerged from the fact that Putin did not make a profit with a peace that could possibly bring him the Nobel Peace Prize, instead of deep sentimental or geopolitical concerns regarding the effects of demolition of support for Ukraine.
As usual, the President also alleviated his previous, violent criticism of the Russian leader. After criticizing Putin's "Bullsh*t" last week, Trump told the BBC on Monday: "I'm not yet finished with him."
Trump is transactional, acts in short periods of time and is constantly looking for small successes that he can highlight. So if he suddenly announces that he is planning a meeting with Putin next month or that he reacts angrily to a new, supposed insult to Selenskyj, nobody would be surprised.
Trump's significant changes
Trump's change of position is significant. By keeping his promise to quickly deliver "state -of -the -art weapons" to Ukraine, he takes a big step. Patriot rocket defense systems could save many civilian life, but Trump goes a political risk One by throwing his skepticism towards Ukraine, which many Maga supporters share.
Trump has also shown more openness to sanctions. The trade between the USA and Russia is currently minimal, so that bilateral punishments would not do much. But if Trump was to impose his threat to impose secondary sanctions against countries, the Russian products, in particular in Energy sector , he could suffocate Moscow's economy and war machine.
However, the question remains whether he would really target India and China-two leading customers of Russian goods-which could significantly burden the US relationships with these great powers and to stimulate the global economy. His unpredictable story in the imposition and then suspension of tariffs within the framework of his global trade wars indicate that this is unlikely. Moscow could rely on it.European diplomacy works
What Trump could deliver to additional weapons also remains unclear. The most optimistic supporters were delighted on Tuesday, when the Financial Times first reported that the President Selenskyj asked in a phone call to Kiev's ability to target both Moscow and St. Petersburg. But Trump damped the speculation on Tuesday, although his advisor CNN not excluded, that he did not exclude certain categories offensive to deliver to the Ukraine, which he was not ready to send.
"No, he shouldn't concentrate on Moscow," Trump told reporters and referred to Selenskyj. "I am not on a side. You know whose side I am? On the side of humanity."
Although he would probably not admit it, the president is in a similar situation as it has long held his predecessor President Joe Biden. He thinks how far he can press Putin without taking explosive steps that could exceed his invisible red lines and expand the war.
NATO in Trump's light
Trump's new tolerance and even appreciation for NATO follow real fears that his new term could trigger a political earthquake, which would result in a US withdrawal. Prime Minister Keir Strander and President Emmanuel Macron, who have worked on Trump and advised Selenskyj, as he should approach the United States in the past few months.
NATO general secretary Mark Rutte recently choreographed a summit of the Allianz in the Netherlands, which was a political triumph for the president. A agreement that the NATO states would spend 5% of GDP for defense by 2035 allowed Trump to argue that he had forced Europe to work seriously on its own defense and to reduce the stress for the USA.
In the presence of Rutte in the Oval Office, Trump praised the European spirit for war in Ukraine and added: "Ultimately, it is a very good thing to have a strong Europe."
Now NATO has solved another political problem for the president. It is effectively used as a front to send patriot rockets to Kyiv. European nations send the batteries according to which US Nato partners will buy replacement from the USA.
rutte represented this diplomatic ballet performance as a further victory for Trump. "Mr. President, dear Donald, that's really big, that is really big," said Rutte and used the characteristic praise that comes across as flattering for many, but Trump accepts as a serious compliment. "You called me on Thursday to say that you made a decision and the decision is that you want Ukraine to have what it needs to defend yourself against Russia, but you want the Europeans to pay for it - which is completely logical," said Rutte.
political challenges in congress
The atmosphere on the Capitol Hill also changes. An advance of sanctioning Russia has already had strong cross -party support in the Senate, and Trump has shown that he can mobilize majorities in the House of Representatives for his priorities.
Trump's ally, Senator Lindsey Graham, and his democratic co -signer Senator Richard Blumenthal said on Monday that their draft law could be a "real executive tool" to isolate Russia. But the law could still cause resistance in the GOP-based, at a time when Trump already some supporters because of the Jeffrey Epstein-Fall has angered.
Senator Josh Hawley from Missouri, who rejects more help for Ukraine, commented on the draft on Tuesday with the statement that he sees no urgent need for a law now that Trump has threatened to sanction Russia and even impose secondary punishments against India and China.
Senator Randrand Paul from Kentucky criticized the initiative as "one of the most dangerous laws that have ever come to the Senate". He predicted a complete interruption of trade with China, India and Turkey, should these be affected by US sanctions.
The internal political disputes about Trump's change of course to Ukraine have not yet been finally clarified.
And really the geopolitical situation is not yet clear. Trump has accepted a harder policy towards Putin, but it is not definitely or guaranteed that this is permanent. The extent of future military support from the United States for Ukraine remains uncertain, even if the Ukrainian government is in a better position with the president compared to before. European NATO countries can breathe a sigh of relief, but Trump's threats in the trade war have caused a deep transatlantic crack.
All of this means that Putin's decisive calculation - that he can survive the West in the war against Ukraine - will probably not change significantly.
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