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Trump and the Ukraine Conflict: A New War
This article outlines how the war in Ukraine is increasingly becoming Donald Trump's conflict as he grapples with U.S. foreign policy challenges and choices.
Trump and the Ukraine Conflict: A New War
Vladimir Putin started the conflict, Joe Biden couldn't stop it. But regardless of his efforts, this week will be the moment when Russia's invasion of Ukraine begins Donald Trump's war will be. The most powerful office in the world does not always only bring with it choices. Trump is forced to deal with the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II, as the United States acted as a key ally and sponsor of Ukraine under his predecessor.
Trump's approach to the conflict
Trump could have ignored the war completely. Instead, however, he decided to use his personality and promoted the idea that he could end the conflict within 24 hours - or a revised deadline of 100 days. He tried to navigate the various actors by first feeling close to the Russian president, parroting his narrative, and then that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly criticized in the Oval Office.
Diplomatic challenges and results
He pressured his NATO allies to pay more to defend Europe - which they did. But the arduous path of diplomacy showed little progress. In the last two weeks, however, Trump's decisions and insights have moved into a realm that he now owns. He has shown that Putin has no interest in peace and that Ukraine urgently needs weapons. Although he wanted to help in his own way, he made the remarkable choice to respond to the usually ignored nuclear threats of Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president, with tougher nuclear threats.
Trump's upcoming decisions
At the end of this week, with Trump's accelerated time frame for a peace deal, he faces perhaps the most important decision of the conflict. Will he impose punishments on Russia that are actually painful? Does he accept that the US and its allies may need to suffer some economic pain to really hurt Russia?
The introduction of serious secondary sanctions against countries like India and China could rattle global energy markets. Trump said Monday that he would increase tariffs on India because it sells Russian crude oil at a profit. He didn't care about the people being killed by the Russian war machine. India has not made it clear publicly whether it plans to stop buying Russian energy products. China, on the other hand, is completely dependent on Russian oil and gas and cannot afford to do without it.
The consequences of Trump's decisions
For another “ TACO ” moment – short for Trump Always Chickens Out – is bound to cause Trump some inconvenience and will probably be affected himself. Alternatively, he could look for a way out if his special envoy Steve Witkoff one is offered during an expected visit to Moscow. Trump could potentially accept a bilateral meeting with Putin as progress toward peace. But even this retreat would mean that he has left his indelible mark on the war.
The Reality of the American Presidency
Trump cannot pick and choose the problems that are his and ignore the ones that are not. MAGA's "America First" concept may be aimed at reducing Washington's influence globally, but it does not allow Trump to claim only his successes - and not his failures. Unless Trump reduces the international influence of American power to zero - which is incompatible with a presidential personality forced to "act" and agitate - there will always be problems that are America's.
The challenges in the Ukraine conflict
Trump says he wants wars to end. But that alone is not enough. The wars didn't all stick to it. Former US President Barack Obama inherited wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He quickly withdrew from the first conflict and increased his presence in the second, which didn't work. Afghanistan became Obama's war, even though it was a mess he inherited. Trump took this mess and passed it to Biden, resulting in this chaotic collapse in August 2021, which was propagated by Republicans as a failure for the Democrats.
Conclusion: Trump and the Ukraine conflict
Trump faces the same problem of having to inherit the crisis. He cannot simply wish the conflict away or appease it. The battlefield deaths he mourns have caused widespread damage and grief, turning this conflict into an existential struggle for survival for the Kremlin and the soul of Ukrainian society. Ukrainian citizens want peace without air raid sirens at night. But Putin doesn't want peace. His latest maximalist demands amount to Ukraine's surrender.
Finally, it reflects a harsh reality that this conflict should be viewed as Trump's war. It is the defining conflict of his presidency and the post-9/11 era. Its outcome will determine European security and China's militant behavior over the next decade. China understands this and needs Russia to win. Europe understands it too and is preparing so that Russia does not see an opportunity to exploit the bloc's weakness. We will find out next week whether Trump understands this and is willing to accept difficult decisions with the corresponding consequences.