Bad news for Ukraine - Russia is also under pressure

Bad news for Ukraine - Russia is also under pressure

The bad news does not tear off. Wherever the Ukrainian capital Kyiv looks, Moscow seems to have the upper hand.

Russian progress on the front

Russia progresses in crucial areas on the front lines in the east and southeast of Ukraine and at the same time unleash shaft around wave of Air attacks in Ukrainian cities.

preparation for a counter -offensive

At the same time, Moscow is preparing to start a counter -offensive in the Southern Russian region of Kursk, where Kyiv was able to record its only great military success this year. President Wolodymyr Selenskyj said that Russia almost published by Kursk arrived North Korean troops was increased.

The Russian Initiative

"The Russians are currently initiative on the front, they have successfully exploited tactical advantages and strengthen them," George Barros from the Institute for the Study of War told CNN. Barros, who heads the Russian and geospatial intelligence teams of the conflict monitoring group, added that the advantage of Russia on the battlefield made it impossible for Ukraine to prepare for a possible counter-offensive.

"The Russians are those who become active and they force the Ukrainians to react. This is not good, because you lose by constantly defensive. You are pushed into the tightness and have to choose from a buffet of bad options," continued Barros.

The situation around Kupiansk

The situation is particularly alarming around Kupiansk. This strategically important city in the northeast again faces the risk of falling back to Russia after it was released by the Ukrainians in September 2022 after more than six months under Russian occupation. Kupiansk is located at the intersection of two large supply streets and on the Oskil river, which forms an important defense element in the region. Taking Kupiansk would make it considerably easier for Russia to further penetrate the Charkiw region, which in turn would exert additional pressure on Charkiw, the second largest city in Ukraine, which is attacked almost daily by Russian drones and missiles.

attacks on Kurakhove

The Russian news agency TASS reported on Friday that Russian troops had reached the suburbs of the city, although Ukrainian officials claimed that Kupiansk was still fully under control of their strength.

defense and setbacks

Although Russia can probably take the city in the coming days or weeks, according to Barros, this could not be strategically important for Kyiv, since it would not significantly impair the ability to defend the further region. Ukraine has been bitter resistance in the region in recent months, even if it has to accept some area losses.

Kurakhove is about 40 kilometers south of Pokrovsk, an important logistical hub that has been in the sights of Russia for many months. The case of Pokrovsk seemed almost safe until late summer. Nevertheless, the forces of Kyiv have so far managed to ward off Russia's advances there, which forced Moscow to rethink his plans.

Russia's lossy offensive

Barros pointed out that the situation in Pokrovsk is only an example of Russia's failure to achieve its publicly declared goals. "You tried to conquer Pokrovsk this autumn, but gave up this operational goal and started to attack in a different direction," said Barros. "It's not just a failure of the Russians. It is actually part of a very steadfast Ukrainian defense."

Since Avdiivka conquered in early 2024, Russia was only able to penetrate about 30 to 40 kilometers deeper into the Ukrainian territory. This is a very low progress in view of the enormous costs for the Russian army. Moscow lost around five divisions of mechanized equipment in the Pokrovsk region, which includes many hundreds of tanks and armored transport vehicles, according to the ISW using visual evidence from the battlefield.

The position war lasts

to the war of wear - but how long? Since the beginning of the full invasion and despite the support of its allies, Ukraine has always been disadvantage in terms of material and staff. Russia has more weapons, more ammunition and more people.

The strategy of Russian President Vladimir Putin still seems to be to slowly crush the Ukraine by exceeding it in terms of firepower and financing and using the western allies of Ukraine. However, many analysts have expressed that Putin has only a limited time window to achieve this goal, given the huge losses that Russia suffers to make even the smallest progress.

economic stress in Russia

The pressure that the conflict on Russia's economy is obviously growing. Russia has massively increased its armaments outputs in the past two years and its economy now shows signs of overheating: inflation is high and companies are fighting with a shortage of labor. In an attempt to control the situation, the Russian central bank raised interest rates to 21 % in October, the highest level in decades.

Although Russia has significantly more people than Ukraine, it suffers from considerable losses, and recruitment of new troops is already a problem - the last time the Russian military introduced partial mobilization, hundreds of thousands of men fled. The latest influx of North Korean troops in Russia will help at short notice, but the material losses could be more difficult to compensate for.

The future of Ukrainian defense

"In view of the economy, the lack of personnel in Russia and the loss of the large number of vehicles that the Russians need for their current warfare, these are strategic resources that will cause serious problems for the Kremlin if the current pace continues next year," said Barros. Whether Ukraine can benefit from these problems mainly depends on the willingness of their allies to continue to support them - and the return of former President Donald Trump into the White House certainly raises a big question mark.

Selenskyj said this week that the war will end "faster" as soon as Trump is back in the presidential office. "If the international western coalition, including the United States, continues to support the Ukrainians in the next maybe 12 to 16, 18 months, there will be opportunities to significantly disturb the way the Russians finance this war," said Barros. "You can decide whether the Russians win or lose."