Ukraine demands security guarantees from the USA and Europe

Ukraine demands security guarantees from the USA and Europe

cnn - security guarantees, as the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj called it several times during a Explosive exchange of blows with the US President Donald Trump and Vice President in the White House last week-and since then. How can the Ukraine be sure that Russia Putin Selenskyj asks. And how can Ukraine be protected from the relentless ambitions of its more powerful neighbor?

Trump and the security guarantees

Trump has openly dismissed Selenskyj's concern about such guarantees. "Security is so easy, that's about 2 % of the problem," he said during the incident in the Oval Office on Friday. His answers to the more comprehensive question of the security of Ukraine were vague, beyond the claim that the Europeans will take care of it and that there will be no need for US support. "It shouldn't be difficult to conclude an agreement," said Trump on Monday, a few hours before he announced a break to the deliveries of US military equipment to Ukraine.

European perspectives on the conflict

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio could have a more realistic assessment. In a Interview with fox news In the last week he explained that" Ukraine really needs a deterrent mechanism ... to make it expensive for everyone to proceed again in the future. " He added that this did not only have to affect America; The Europeans could also be involved.

on the way to a European solution

European leader met in London to answer for the Ukraine To look for solutions for the dissolving transatlantic relationships. "This is a unique event for the security of Europe," said British Prime Minister Keir Strander and demanded a "coalition of the willing". Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German ambassador to Washington, wrote in Foreign Affairs: "Europe knows one thing: The possible agreement does not simply affect the division of Ukraine or securing a quick ceasefire ... It is about a permanent peace treaty, about existential security issues for all of Europe."

The challenges of peace conservation

However, Claudia Major and Aldo Kleemann from the German Institute for International and Security Policy in a recently published paper expressed that Europeans lacked "the necessary military skills as well as in political will and in unity" to take responsibility. President Emmanuel macron expressed the negotiation "Would take a few weeks and after peace was signed, a (troop) provision could follow", but this would have to be coordinated with Russia. However, Macron admitted that a ceasefire along the 1,000 kilometer front line would be “very difficult”.

The problem of military presence

zelensky emphasized the need for "very specific security guarantees and very specific providers of these guarantees" in London on the weekend, which would again make aggression "impossible". At the same time, at least 100,000 soldiers would have to be mobilized for a comprehensive international peace mission - a significant obligation solely for the European armies. In comparison, the peace mission, which began in Kosovo in 1999, comprised 48,000 soldiers, while Ukraine is more than 50 times the size of Kosovo.

The geopolitical implications and challenges

In an ideal situation, security guarantees would have to include three components: a considerable international presence on site, strong US support and a modernized and enlarged Ukrainian army. A contingent of up to 100,000 peace troops could be sufficient together with a Ukrainian force of around 200,000 soldiers to serve as a deterrent. But without a real reason for the Kremlin for the negotiation, this remains a dream. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already made it clear that the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine is "categorically unacceptable".

The future of European security guarantees

In view of the signs that the Trump administration is checking the defense, which could lead to a possible reduction in the American military in Europe, all eyes are aimed at the next steps by European leaders. Europe can only contribute through the development of its own defense identity, which includes joint research, production and training. The European Commission has already presented plans for the development of a fund for the defense industries and suggests that EU countries can accept up to EUR 150 billion in credit. The aim is to make Ukraine a "steel igola" that "is difficult to digest for future intruders".

The long -term goal of the peace negotiations

However, the question of the long -term intentions of Russia - no matter what the Kremlin may agree with. The patterns of deception, false promises and escalation, which become clear from the Russian leadership, represent the greatest obstacle to peace. More than Selenskyj's demands for security guarantees, these behavior patterns must be observed in order to find a sustainable solution.