Trump's Ukraine ambassador has a plan to end the war

Trump's Ukraine ambassador has a plan to end the war

In a single post, the newly elected president presented to the world what the end of the Ukraine war could look like. The diplomatic challenges that need to be overcome are considerable.

Trump's diplomacy: peace through strength

“I am pleased to nominate General Keith Kellogg to serve as Assistant to the President and Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social channel. “Together we will secure peace through strength and make America and the world safe again!”

By naming Keith Kellogg as his special envoy for Ukraine, Donald Trump has chosen a clear and predetermined plan for the most difficult foreign policy issue on his desk.

Kellogg's peace plan in detail

Kellogg, Trump's 80-year-old former national security adviser, outlined in detail his peace plan, which he wrote for the America First Policy Institute in April. He describes the war as “an avoidable crisis that, because of the Biden administration’s incompetent policies… has embroiled America in an endless war.”

In summary, a ceasefire will freeze the front lines and both sides will be forced to come to the negotiating table. But the further details of the plan are complex.

Rethink US involvement in the Ukraine conflict

Kellogg primarily criticizes Biden's actions, saying his administration provided too little lethal aid too late. He argues that Trump's decision to give the first lethal aid to Ukraine in 2018 showed the strength necessary to confront Putin. Trump's soft approach to the Kremlin chief - in contrast to Biden's demonization - would allow him to broker a deal.

Kellogg says more weapons should be deployed before the Russian invasion and immediately after to help Ukraine win.

US aid with conditions

But this is exactly where the plan becomes CNN reports that Trump's soon-to-be national security adviser is considering is no longer in Ukraine's interest. Kellogg stresses that the United States should not get involved in another conflict and that its weapons stockpiles have been weakened by aid to Ukraine, potentially leaving the country vulnerable in a conflict with China over Taiwan.

He proposes to indefinitely suspend Ukraine's NATO membership - which in reality is a long way off and was offered symbolically for a united Europe - "in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace agreement with security guarantees."

The path to a ceasefire

The plan further stipulates that it should become formal U.S. policy to seek a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement. Future U.S. aid - likely in the form of loans - will be conditioned on Ukraine negotiating with Russia, and the U.S. will arm Ukraine to the point where it can defend itself and deter further Russian attacks before and after a peace deal.

However, this latter idea may already be outdated due to the rapid advance of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine, which makes Kellogg uncomfortable at the current peak of US aid.

The complexity of the front lines and their consequences

A ceasefire would freeze the front lines and create a demilitarized zone. In return for this agreement, Russia would lift limited sanctions; full relief would only come if a peace treaty favorable to Ukraine is signed. A levy on Russian energy exports would finance Ukraine's reconstruction. Ukraine would not have to forego retaking occupied territories, but would have to commit to pursuing this exclusively through diplomacy. “That would require a future diplomatic breakthrough, which is unlikely to occur until Putin is in office,” Kellogg accepts.

A dark interplay of interests

The concept is simple and quick, but it does not meet Moscow's demands, which have previously been used to cynically pursue military goals. The freezing of front lines will make the next few months violent as Moscow aims to gain as much ground as possible. In the past, the Kremlin has ignored ceasefires and fully pursued its territorial goals.

The demilitarized zone would likely need to be secured, perhaps by NATO troops or soldiers from other neutral nations. This will be difficult to maintain and staff, to say the least. In addition, the zone stretches for hundreds of kilometers and requires massive financial investments.

Changing values

Kellogg also reveals his way of thinking in two statements. He explains that national security in the sense of America First arises from practical necessity. “Biden has replaced Trump’s approach with a liberal internationalism that promotes Western values, human rights and democracy,” he writes. This is a poor basis for finding a compromise on European security.

He adds that some critics of further aid to Ukraine - which he appears to include himself among - are "concerned about whether America's vital strategic interests are at risk in the Ukraine war, the potential for American military involvement, and whether America is engaged in a proxy war with Russia that could escalate into a nuclear conflict." These two sentences form the compelling backdrop for the proposed deal: The Ukraine war is about values ​​that we do not need to perpetuate, and we should refrain from Putin's nuclear threats.

A bleak outlook

The plan offers Ukraine a welcome chance to end the violence while it is losing on all fronts and suffering bitterly from a lack of personnel - an obstacle it may never be able to overcome, while Russia will likely always outpace it.

However, the proposed solution could initiate a process in which a cunning and deceitful Putin will take every advantage. Exploiting a ceasefire and the West's weakness is his trademark, something he has waited almost three years for. The plan accepts exhaustion in the West, that production capacity in the defense industry cannot keep pace, and that its values ​​are inefficient. Furthermore, little consideration was given to the measures Russia might take to disrupt its vision.

It is a murky compromise for a murky war. But he could not end it, but instead open a new chapter in which the unity and support of the West begins to crumble and Putin moves closer to his goals both at the negotiating table and on the front lines.